확률분포에 따른 불확실한 변수를 고려한 위험도기반의 정성적 평가

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Plants which are having conditions of high temperature and pressure always are exposed to danger. In order to prevent unexpected accidents, safety management that can effectively and appropriately examine facilities is required in plant operation. RBI(Risk-Based Inspection) technology in API 581 is one of standard management technique for evaluating risk on petroleum plants. There are qualitative and quantitative assessments in RBI methodology. Quantitative evaluation step is complex and required much information, so high-risk facilities in plant are selected firstly by qualitative method. Qualitative RBI is performed by choosing the answer in prepared questionnaire. However, it is difficult to believe thoroughly results from survey including ambiguous information. In this study, the procedure of qualitative RBI analysis with considering probability distribution concept were proposed by using Monte Carlo simulation method in order to increase reliability in spite of uncertain factors. In addition, qualitative risk of cooling system for LNG plant was evaluated using proposed procedure. Although 20 items of total 39 assessment items are applied to uncertain factors, risk section of high probability(89%) were verified. The detailed results were described in manuscript.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• ABSTRACT
• 1. 서론
• 2. 위험도기반 검사
• 3. 확률분포를 활용한 불확실한 변수 고려
• 4. LNG 플랜트의 확률론적 RBI 평가
• 5. 결론
• 참고문헌

참고문헌 (Reference)

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