Empirico-statistical analysis of narrative material and its applications to historical dating

목차 (Table of Contents)

• CONTENTS
• Foreword = xi
• Preface = xiii
• Chapter 1. Problems of Ancient and Medieval Chronology = 1
• 1. The Global Chronological Diagram of Ancient and Medieval History = 1
• 1.1. The moon's elongation and R. Newton's conjecture = 1
• 1.2. The Dark Ages and the Renaissance epochs = 2
• 1.3. How to substantiate ancient chronology = 3
• 1.4. Statistical dating methods: new possibilities = 5
• 1.5. The duplication effect in ancient history and chronology = 7
• 1.6. The global chronological diagram and the "modern textbook" of ancient and medieval history = 8
• 1.7. The "modern textbook", a composition of four identical pieces = 10
• 1.8. Certain corollaries and interpretations = 11
• 1.9. What is to be done with the moon's elongation? = 12
• References = 13
• 2. Computation of the Second Derivative of the Moon's Elongation and Statistical Regularities in the Distribution of the Records of Ancient Eclipses = 15
• 2.1. Parameter D" and R. Newton's paper "Astronomical evidence concerning non-gravitational forces in the Earth-Moon system" = 15
• 2.2. Available observations of ancient solar and lunar eclipses = 17
• 2.3. A method of formal astronomical dating = 18
• 2.4. The effect of shifting the dates of eclipses forwards = 19
• 2.5. An example: three eclipses of Thucydides = 20
• 2.6. An example: the eclipse described by Livy = 22
• 2.7. An example: the eclipse described by Livy and Plutarch = 23
• 2.8. An example: the evangelical eclipse described in the New Testament in connection with the Crucifixion = 24
• 2.9. The oscillation of a new graph of D" about one and the same value. No nongravitational theories are necessary = 25
• 2.10. Three rigid "astronomical shifts" of ancient eclipses = 28
• 2.11. The complete picture of astronomical shifts = 31
• 2.12. The coincidence of the astronomical shifts with the three basic chronological shifts in the global chronological diagram = 31
• 3. Traditional Chronology of the Flares of Stars and the Dating of Ancient Horoscopes = 32
• 3.1. Ancient and medieval flares of stars. The star of Bethlehem = 32
• 3.2. Astronomical dating of ancient Egyptian horoscopes = 34
• 3.3. Astronomical dating of the horoscope described in the Book of Revelation = 35
• References = 37
• Chapter 2. New Statistical Methods for Dating = 39
• 4 Certain Statistical Regularities of Information Density Distribution in Texts with A Scale = 39
• 4.1. Text with a scale. The general notion = 39
• 4.2. Information characteristics （i.e., informative functions） of a historical text. Volume function, name function, and reference function = 40
• 4.3. A theoretical model describing the distribution of local maxima for the volume function of a historical text. Primary stock. The information density conservation law = 42
• 4.4. The correlation of local maxima for the volume graphs of dependent historical chronicles. The surviving-stock graph = 43
• 4.5. Mathematical formalization. The numerical coefficient d（X,Y）, which measures the "distance" between two historical texts X and Y = 44
• 4.6. Mathematical formulas for computing d（X,Y）. Mathematical corrections of the maxima correlation principle = 47
• 4.7. Verification of the maxima correlation principle against concrete historical material = 49
• 4.8. A new method for dating historical events. The method of restoring the graph of the primary and surviving information stock = 52
• 4.9. The discovery of dependent （parallel） historical epochs traditionally regarded as different = 53
• 4.10. The dynasty of rulers and the durations of their reigns as an important informative function = 54
• 4.11. Frequency distribution of the rules of kings who lived from A.D. 1400 to 1800 and from 3000 B.C. to A.D. 1800 = 55
• 4.12. The concept of statistically parallel historical texts and epochs = 57
• 4.13. The "written biography" or enqu$$\hat e$$te-code of a historical character = 57
• 4.14. A method of comparing the sets of informative functions for two historical epochs = 60
• 4.15. A computational experiment = 61
• 4.16. The remarkable decomposition of the global chronological diagram into the sum of four practically indistinguishable chronicles = 62
• References = 66
• 5. A Method of Duplicate Recognition and Some Applications to the Chronology of Ancient Dynasties = 67
• 5.1. The process of measuring random variables = 67
• 5.2. The distance between two random vectors = 67
• 5.3. Dynasties of rulers. The real dynasty and the numerical dynasty. Dependent and independent dynasties. The small-distortion principle = 68
• 5.4. Basic errors leading to controversy among chroniclers as to the duration of kings' rules = 69
• 5.5. The experimental frequency histogram fur the duration of the rules of kings = 70
• 5.6. Virtual dynasties and a mathematical model for errors made by the chronicler in measuring the rule duration = 70
• 5.7. The small-distortion principle and a computer experiment = 72
• 5.8. Pairs of dependent historical dynasties previously regarded as independent = 73
• 5.9. The distribution of dependent dynasties in the "modern textbook" of ancient history = 73
• 5.10. Dependent dynasties in the Bible and parallel with European history = 74
• References = 75
• 6. A New Empirico-Statistical Procedure for Text Ordering and Its Applications to the Problems of Dating = 76
• 6.1. The chapter generation = 76
• 6.2. The frequency-damping principle = 76
• 6.3. The method of finding the chronologically correct order of chapters in a historical chronicle = 77
• 6.4. The frequency-duplicating principle and the method of duplicate recognition = 79
• 6.5. The distribution of old and new duplicates in the Old and New Testament. A striking example: the Book of Revelation = 81
• 6.6. Duplicates of epochs in the "modern textbook" of ancient history = 83
• References = 87
• Chapter 3, New Experimental and Statistical Methods for Dating Events of Ancient History, and Their Applications to the Global Chronology of Ancient and Medieval History = 88
• 7. Introduction. N.A. Morozov and Modern Results = 88
• 8. Problems of Historical Chronology = 89
• 8.1. Roman chronology as the "spinal column" of European chronology = 89
• 8.2. Scaliger, Petavius, Christian chronographers and secular chronography = 90
• 8.3. Questioning the authenticity of Roman tradition. Hypercriticism and T. Mommsen = 93
• 8.4. Difficulties In the establishment of Egyptian chronology = 94
• 8.5. Competing chronological versions. De Arcilla, J. Hardouin, Ⅰ. Newton and R. Baldauf = 96
• 8.6. Tacitus and Bracciolioni. Cicero and Barzizza = 97
• 8.7. Vitruvius and L. Alberti = 98
• 8.8. "The chaos of medieval datings" （E. Bickerman）. Medieval anachronisms and medieval concepts of time = 99
• 8.9. The chronology of the biblical manuscripts. L. Tischendorf = 102
• 8.10. Vowels in ancient manuscripts = 103
• 8.11. Traditional biblical geography = 104
• 8.12. Problems of geographical localization of ancient events = 105
• 8.13. Modern analysis of biblical geography = 107
• 8.14. Ancient originals and medieval duplicates. Anachronisms as a common feature in medieval chronicles = 110
• 8.15. Names and nicknames. Handwritten books = 112
• 9. Astronomical and Mathematical Analysis of the Almagest = 113
• 9.1. Morosov's analysis of the First medieval editions of the Almagest = 113
• 9.2. On the statistical characteristics of the Almagest. The structure of the star catalogue = 115
• 9.3. The accuracy of the Almagest's star coordinates = 119
• 9.4. The problem of dating the Almagest from the individual stars' proper motion = 120
• 9.5. Halley's discovery of the stars' proper motion and the Almagest = 128
• 10. Archaeological Dating Methods = 131
• 10.1. Classical excavation methods = 131
• 10.2. Numismatics = 132
• 10.3. The dendrochronological method = 133
• 10.4. The radiocarbon method = 133
• 11. Astronomical Dating. Ancient Eclipses and Horoscopes = 136
• 12. New Experimental and Statistical Methods of Dating Ancient Events = 140
• 12.1. Introduction = 140
• 12.2. Volume graphs for historical chronicles. The maximum correlation principle. Computational experiments and typical examples = 140
• 12.3. Method of recognition and dating the dynasties of ancient rulers. The small-distortion principle = 143
• 12.4. The frequency-damping principle. A method of ordering texts in time = 145
• 12.5. Applications to Roman and Greek history = 148
• 12.6. The frequency-duplication principle. The duplicate-discovery method = 151
• 12.7. Statistical analysis of the complete list of all the names mentioned in the Bible = 152
• 12.8. Statistical analysis of the complete list of all parallel passages in the Bible = 155
• 12.9. Duplicates in the Bible = 157
• 12.10. The enqu$$\hat e$$te-code or formalized "biography" method = 159
• 12.11. A method for the chronological ordering of ancient maps = 160
• 13. Construction of the G1oba1 Chronological Diagram and Certain Results of Applying the Dating Methods to Ancient History = 162
• 13.1. The "textbook" of ancient and medieval history = 162
• 13.2. Duplicates = 162
• 13.3. Dependent dynasties = 163
• 13.4. The agreement of different methods = 165
• 13.5. Three basic chronological shifts = 166
• 13.6. Biblical history and European history = 168
• 13.7 The beginning of "authentic" history in circa the 10th century A.D. = 173
• 13.8. The chronological version of Morozov and the author's conception = 174
• 13.9. The confusion between the two Romes = 175
• 13.10. A universal mechanism which could lead to the chroniclers' chronological errors = 177
• 13.11. Scaliger, Petavius and the Council of Trent. Creation of traditional chronology = 178
• 14. The "Dark Ages" in Medieval History = 180
• 14.1. Medieval Italy and Rome = 180
• 14.2. Medieval Greece and Athens = 187
• 14.3. The history of religions = 193
• 14.4. Indian history and chronology = 195
• References = 196
• Index = 203