New Scoring System for Predicting Mortality in Patients with COVID-19

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Purpose: We aimed to develop a novel mortality scoring system for inpatients with COVID-19 based on simple demographic factorsand laboratory findings.
Materials and Methods: We reviewed and analyzed data from patients who were admitted and diagnosed with COVID-19 at 10hospitals in Daegu, South Korea, between January and July 2020. We randomized and assigned patients to the development andvalidation groups at a 70% to 30% ratio. Each point scored for selected risk factors helped build a new mortality scoring system usingCox regression analysis. We evaluated the accuracy of the new scoring system in the development and validation groups usingthe area under the curve.
Results: The development group included 1232 patients, whereas the validation group included 528 patients. In the developmentgroup, predictors for the new scoring system as selected by Cox proportional hazards model were age ≥70 years, diabetes, chronickidney disease, dementia, C-reactive protein levels >4 mg/dL, infiltration on chest X-rays at the initial diagnosis, and the need foroxygen support on admission. The areas under the curve for the development and validation groups were 0.914 [95% confidenceinterval (CI) 0.891–0.937] and 0.898 (95% CI 0.854–0.941), respectively. According to our scoring system, COVID-19 mortality was0.4% for the low-risk group (score 0–3) and 53.7% for the very high-risk group (score ≥11).
Conclusion: We developed a new scoring system for quickly and easily predicting COVID-19 mortality using simple predictors.
This scoring system can help physicians provide the proper therapy and strategy for each patient.

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