무역과 거시 경제로 본 정책환경에의 함의

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

1995년 부터 2008년까지 WTO에 제소된 모든 무역 분쟁의 거시 경제적 결정 요인에 대해 probit regression으로 계량화했음.
일인당 소득수준에 따라 World Bank 기준으로 구분해 분쟁 제소 요인이 고소득국과 중진국, 저소득국이 다르다는 것을 보여주었음.
이것은 앞으로 세계 무역 구조를 만들어가는데 있어 중요한 시사점을 던지고 있음.

WTO 에 분쟁 해결 의뢰를 할 때 저소득국이 받는 충격여파, 비용부담은 상당함. 그럼에도 불구하고 이들이 제소할 때는 상당한 충격이 있었다고 보아야 함. 저소득국의 수출품과 산업은 다양화 되어 있지 않기 때문에 농산물 등 주로 상품이 많기 때문에 이들 경제의 안정과 발전을 위해 관련상품의 가격 안정이 중요함. 관련해서 특이할 점은 세계수입이 늘고 붐이 일어날 때 이들이 그 혜택을 받지 못할 가능성이 있다는 것이 발견되었다는 것. 그 외에 중진국과 저소득국의 거시경제적 요인의 안정은 물론 중요한 것으로 발견되었음.

대조적으로 고소득국의 경우는 상품 서비스 수지가 흑자로 양호할 때 무역분쟁에서 오히려 공격적인 성향을 보였음.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The main focus of this article is to find out whether and how trade disputes have been influenced by macroeconomic conditions of the world economy. Under the recent circumstances of growing concern about protectionism caused by financial crisis and the subsequent fall in the world trade growth, this study is being timely.

Apparently trade dispute is neither equivalent to trade protectionism, nor motivated by the adverse macroeconomic conditions all the time, and we should not exclude the possibility that trade disputes can be occurred by purely case-specific reasons, but it can be a limited window of trade protectionism at least. One should take the evidences of macroeconomic influence serious, if any, because trade dispute initiations would be one of the most decisive trade policy decisions entailing serious considerations of many parties, due to the possible political and economic costs in case of initiations.

Another point to be made is that this study is at the crossroad of trade and macroeconomics. In spite of their interdependence, these two topics are not often merged in the Academia, which forms a spectrum of the literature.

The scope for research in the way the world trade is evolved by the macroeconomic environments remains even if it looks obvious in the international macroeconomic theories. For instance, the unitary exchange rate pass-through effects to import prices assumed under the Mundell-Fleming model becomes weaker in recent years(Courn？e, Ahrend, Price 2008). Particularly under the globalization, macroeconomic channels to trade become more unpredictable as one can see from the supply chains in the automobile industries that are too global to expect that fiscal stimulus packages will rescue the domestic companies only.

Given the motivations said, this paper takes a two-pronged approach. To begin with, we will investigate whether and how the macroeconomic environments of the OECD area have been altering the count of the world trade disputes. Recollecting that international macroeconomic environments have been a critical determinant of the launch of all postwar trade rounds (Bergsten 2000) and the OECD area has covered the substantial portion of the world economy with synchronized business cycles(Duval, Elmeskov, Vogel 2007), the macroeconomic environments of the OECD area are relevant as characterizing the world economy and worthy enough to be examined in its own right as the inducement to trade disputes.

Our second question is whether and how differently different income groups of countries initiate trade disputes under the world and domestic macroeconomic factors. Intrinsically analyzing the behaviors of large and small open economies has a political economy dimension but participation of t