보증보험의 경제적 역할에 관한 실증연구 = An Empirical Study on the Economic Role of the Surety Insurance)

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study examines the economic role of the surety insurance and empirically investigates the causality between the size of the growth of the SMEs, and the unemployment rate. Specifically, We conducted empirical analysis for the relationship of these factors using the time series analysis of the Granger Causality and Vector Autoregression model.
In conclusion, the growth of the surety insurance is affected by the unemployment rate but not by the SMEs' production in the short run. The growth of the surety insurance increase the unemployment rate but has no effect on the SMEs' production in the short run. But in the middle run, surety insurance increases the SMEs' production three years later. This result shows that the growth of the surety insurance has a positive effect on the SMEs' production with a certain time lag.
The growth of the surety insurance increases the unemployment rate in the short run, but decreases it in the middle run and stabilizes in the long run.

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