전략적 투표율의 변화, 개인의 선호도 변화 그리고 군소후보의 쇠퇴

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The literature on strategic voting seldom addresses the issue of longitudinal change in individual voters' preferences by taking individual preferences for given. Plurality rule is widely known to induce voters to act strategically, which in turn affects a political party system. Nonetheless, it is still unknown whether the electoral system is responsible not just for such behavioral change but also for preference change. This study deals with the issue of whether plurality rule brings about preference change as well as behavioral change over time, using panel data from the 1992 and 1996 US presidential elections. It finds that while supporters of third￢placed candidates have a strong incentive to engage in strategic voting in a short term, they are more likely to rearrange their best preferences over a long term; this long-term effect is more accountable for the abandonment of third place candidates under plurality rule.

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