Foresight in science : picking the winners

목차 (Table of Contents)

• CONTENTS
• List of figures and tables = ⅸ
• Preface and acknowledgements = xi
• Foreword / Sir Ronald Mason, FRS = xiii
• 1. Introduction : the role of strategic research = 1
• 1.1 Basic research in the new economic context = 1
• 1.2 The concept of strategic research = 2
• 1.3 Strategic research as a policy concern = 5
• 1.4 Origins and structure of the book = 8
• References = 12
• 2. Learning from history : retrospective studies of innovation = 15
• 2.1 Science, technology and the innovation process = 15
• 2.2 Project Hindsight = 16
• 2.3 TRACES = 18
• 2.4 Interactions of science and technology in the innovative process = 21
• 2.5 Study of biomedical science by Comroe and Dripps = 22
• 2.6 Other restrospective studies = 23
• 2.7 Lessons from retrospective studies of innovation = 24
• References = 27
• 3. Research forecasting in France = 29
• 3.1 Introduction = 29
• 3.2 Basic research : forecasting activity by the CNRS = 30
• 3.3 Strategic and applied research : forecasting activity by the Ministry of Industry and Research = 33
• 3.4 Forecasting activity by industry = 39
• References = 43
• 4. Research forecasting in West Germany = 45
• 4.1 Introduction = 45
• 4.2 Basic research : forecasting activity by the DFG and MPG = 45
• 4.2.1 Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft(DFG) = 45
• 4.2.2 The Max-Planck-Gesellschaft(MPG) = 48
• 4.3 Strategic and applied research : forecasting activity by the BMFT and FhG = 51
• 4.3.1 Federal Ministry for Research and Technology(BMFT) = 51
• 4.3.2 Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft(FhG) = 56
• 4.4 Forecasting activity by industry = 58
• References = 65
• 5. Research forecasting in the United States = 67
• 5.1 Introduction = 67
• 5.2 Forecasting in basic science : NSF and NAS = 67
• 5.2.1 The COSPUP field surveys = 68
• 5.2.2 NSF studies commissioned from consultancies = 76
• 5.3 Forecasting in strategic and applied research : the DoE = 83
• 5.4 Overall research forecasting : OSTP = 85
• 5.5 Research forecasting : science-based firms = 88
• 5.6 Research forecasting : consultancies = 93
• References = 101
• 6. Research forecasting in Japan = 105
• 6.1 Introduction = 105
• 6.2 Forecasting of fundamental research : Monbusho = 105
• 6.3 Forecasting of strategic research and basic technology : the STA = 107
• 6.3.1 The STA thirty-year forecasts = 107
• 6.3.2 The STA ERATO programme = 114
• 6.4 Forecasting of basic technology : MITI = 117
• 6.5 Forecasting of strategic and applied research : industry = 124
• 6.6 Forecasting of strategic and applied research : consultancy organisations = 130
• References = 134
• 7. Learning from others : cross-national comparisons = 137
• 7.1 Introduction = 137
• 7.2 Lessons from national research-funding agencies = 137
• 7.3 Lessons from government departments, ministries and agencies = 140
• 7.4 Lessons from industry = 144
• 8. Conclusions : future options for picking scientific winners = 149
• 8.1 Approaches to research forecasting : a summary = 149
• 8.2 Macro-level strategic research forecasting : an option for Britain = 151
• 8.2.1 The aims of macro-level forecasting = 153
• 8.2.2 General nature of macro-level forecasting = 154
• 8.2.3 Procedures for undertaking the macro-level forecast = 156
• 8.2.4 Establishing macro-level forecasting on a continuing basis = 158
• References = 161
• Index = 163