미국주택담보대출 채무불이행에 관한 연구

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The study focuses on analyzing the effects of borrowers or lenders-friendly policies on mortgage defaults during a period of high delinquency rates. Specifically, the study investigates the impact of judicial foreclosure, redemption, and recourse mortgage loans on mortgage defaults. The results showed that while judicial foreclosure and redemption were classified as borrower-friendly policies, they did not have a statistically significant effect on the probability of default. Recourse mortgage loans, on the other hand, were found to have a statistically significant negative effect on the default, meaning that they reduced the likelihood of borrowers defaulting on their loans. Additionally, the study compared the influence of the borrower’s current debt-to-income (current DTI) ratio and unemployment rate on the default model. The current month’s DTI variable was found to have a statistically significant positive effect on debt default, meaning that higher current DTI ratios increased the likelihood of borrowers defaulting. However, the current month’s unemployment rate variable did not have a statistically significant effect on debt default. Finally, the study compared the predictive power of an econometric model and a machine learning model, and found that the econometric model was weakly better in predicting mortgage defaults.