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    산출물갭, 인플레이션 및 무역수지에 대한 대규모 재정정책의 효과 = Large-Scale Fiscal Policy Effects on Output Gap, Inflation and Trade Balance

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    https://www.riss.kr/link?id=A87000778

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    This paper investigates the effects of large-scale fiscal policy on output gap, inflation and trade balance, using the annual data of OECD 28 countries from 1960 to 2008. In general, non-Keynesian argument is supported for large-scale fiscal contractions, but not for large-scale fiscal expansion. Also we found that as the government debt gets larger, large-scale fiscal policy has non-Keynesian effects, which is consistent with Sutherland (1997).
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    This paper investigates the effects of large-scale fiscal policy on output gap, inflation and trade balance, using the annual data of OECD 28 countries from 1960 to 2008. In general, non-Keynesian argument is supported for large-scale fiscal contracti...

    This paper investigates the effects of large-scale fiscal policy on output gap, inflation and trade balance, using the annual data of OECD 28 countries from 1960 to 2008. In general, non-Keynesian argument is supported for large-scale fiscal contractions, but not for large-scale fiscal expansion. Also we found that as the government debt gets larger, large-scale fiscal policy has non-Keynesian effects, which is consistent with Sutherland (1997).

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    참고문헌 (Reference)

    1 한경화, "재정정책과 거시변수:대규모 재정정책 효과를 중심으로" 이화여자대학교 2011

    2 박완규, "대규모 재정정책 변화와 금융시장 반응" 한국재정학회 3 (3): 1-37, 2010

    3 전진, "교역조건 악화가 실질소득과 경상수지에 미친 영향" LG경제연구원 1998

    4 김홍기, "경상수지 결정요인에 관한 실증연구" 7 (7): 21-36, 2001

    5 Kollmann,R, "US trade balance dynamics:the role of fiscal policy and productivity shocks and of financial market linkages" 17 : 637-669, 1998

    6 Kim,S, "Twin deficits or Twin Divergence Fiscal Policy,Current Account and Real Exchange Rate in the U.S" 74 (74): 362-383, 2008

    7 Billmeier,A, "Trade openness and growth:purchasing empirical glasnost" 56 : 447-475, 2009

    8 Lane,P.R, "The trade balance and fiscal policy in the OECD" 42 : 887-895, 1998

    9 Dungey,M, "The identification of fiscal and monetary policy in a structural VAR" 26 (26): 1147-1160, 2009

    10 Alesina,A, "Tales of fiscal contractions" 27 : 487-545, 1998

    1 한경화, "재정정책과 거시변수:대규모 재정정책 효과를 중심으로" 이화여자대학교 2011

    2 박완규, "대규모 재정정책 변화와 금융시장 반응" 한국재정학회 3 (3): 1-37, 2010

    3 전진, "교역조건 악화가 실질소득과 경상수지에 미친 영향" LG경제연구원 1998

    4 김홍기, "경상수지 결정요인에 관한 실증연구" 7 (7): 21-36, 2001

    5 Kollmann,R, "US trade balance dynamics:the role of fiscal policy and productivity shocks and of financial market linkages" 17 : 637-669, 1998

    6 Kim,S, "Twin deficits or Twin Divergence Fiscal Policy,Current Account and Real Exchange Rate in the U.S" 74 (74): 362-383, 2008

    7 Billmeier,A, "Trade openness and growth:purchasing empirical glasnost" 56 : 447-475, 2009

    8 Lane,P.R, "The trade balance and fiscal policy in the OECD" 42 : 887-895, 1998

    9 Dungey,M, "The identification of fiscal and monetary policy in a structural VAR" 26 (26): 1147-1160, 2009

    10 Alesina,A, "Tales of fiscal contractions" 27 : 487-545, 1998

    11 Blanchard,O, "Suggestion for a new set of fiscal indicators" OECD 1993

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    14 Giavazzi,F, "Searching for non-monotonic effects of fiscal policy:evidence for industrial and developing countries" 44 : 1269-1289, 2000

    15 Bahmani-Oskooee,M, "Relative responsiveness of trade flow to a change in prices and exchange rate" 17 (17): 293-308, 2003

    16 Mann,Catherine, "Perspectives on the U.S.Current Account Deficit and Sustainability" 16 (16): 131-152, 2002

    17 Barro,R.J, "Output effects of government purchases" 89 : 1086-1121, 1981

    18 Temple,J, "Openness,inflation and phillips curve:a puzzle" 34 : 450-468, 2002

    19 Chang,R, "Openness can be good for growth:The role of policy complementaries" 90 : 33-49, 2009

    20 Romer,D, "Openness and inflation:theory and evidence" 108 : 869-904, 1993

    21 Giavazzi,F, "Non-Keynesian effects of fiscal policy changes:International evidence and the Swedish experience" 3 : 67-103, 1996

    22 Fisher,J, "Modern hyper-and high inflations" 40 : 176-187, 2002

    23 Chinn,M.D, "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries:an empirical exploration" 59 : 47-76, 2003

    24 van Aarle,B, "Keynesian,non-keynesian or no effects of fiscal policy changes? The EMU case" 25 : 213-240, 2003

    25 Canzoneri,M.B, "Is the price level determined by the needs of fiscal solvency" 91 : 1221-1238, 2001

    26 Hjelm,G, "Is private consumption growth higher(lower)during periods of fiscal contractions(expansions)" 24 : 17-39, 2002

    27 Brunetti,A, "Investment and institutional uncertainty:a comparative study of different uncertainty measures" 134 : 513-533, 1998

    28 Lane,P, "Inflation in open economics" 42 : 327-347, 1997

    29 Neiss,K.S, "Inflation dynamics,marginal cost,and the output gap:evidence from three countries" 37 (37): 1019-1045, 2005

    30 Han,S, "Inflation and the size of government" 90 : 245-267, 2008

    31 Feldstein,M, "Government deficits and aggregate demand" 9 : 1-20, 1982

    32 Glick,R, "Global versus country-specific productivity shocks and the current account" 35 : 159-192, 1995

    33 Rafiq,S, "Fiscal stance,the current account and the real exchange rate:Some empirical estimates from a time-varying framework" 21 (21): 276-290, 2010

    34 Ardagna,A, "Fiscal stabilization:when do they work and why" 48 : 1047-1074, 2004

    35 Alesina,A, "Fiscal policy,profits,and investment" 92 : 571-589, 2002

    36 Josson,K, "Fiscal policy regimes and household consumption" 27 : 183-214, 2007

    37 Perotti,R, "Fiscal policy in good times and bad" 114 : 1399-1436, 1999

    38 Rosenswerg,J, "Fiscal policy and trade adjustment:are the deficits really twins" 31 (31): 580-594, 1993

    39 Schclarek,A, "Fiscal policy and private consumption in industrial and developing countries" 29 : 912-939, 2007

    40 Alesina,A, "Fiscal expansions and adjustments in OECD countries" 21 : 205-248, 1995

    41 Cato,L.A.V, "Fiscal deficits and inflation" 52 (52): 529-554, 2005

    42 Sutherland,A, "Fiscal crises and aggregate demand; can high public debt reverse the effects of fiscal policy" 65 : 142-162, 1997

    43 Alesina,A, "Fiscal adjustment in OECD countries:composition and macroeconomic effects" 44 : 210-248, 1997

    44 Monacelli,T, "Fiscal Policy,the Real Exchange Rate and Traded Goods" 120 (120): 437-461, 2010

    45 Ardagna,A, "Financial markets’ behavior and episodes of large changes in the fiscal stance" 53 : 37-55, 2009

    46 Berndt,E.R, "Fifty years of economic measurement: the Jubille of the conference on research in income and wealth" University of Chicago Press 1991

    47 Hjelm,G, "Effects of fiscal contractions:The importance of preceding exchange rate movements" 104 : 423-441, 2002

    48 Backus,D.K, "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade:the J-curve" 84 (84): 84-103, 1994

    49 McMillin,W.D, "Deficits,money and inflation:Comment" 10 (10): 273-277, 1982

    50 Niskanen,W.A, "Deficits,government spending,and inflation:What is the evidence" 4 (4): 591-602, 1978

    51 Kia,A, "Deficits,debt financing,monetary policy and inflation in developing countries:Internal or external factors?:Evidence from Iran" 17 (17): 879-903, 2006

    52 Anoruo,E, "Current account and fiscal deficits:Evidence from five developing economies of Asia" 9 (9): 487-501, 1998

    53 Khalid,A.M, "Causality tests of budget and current account deficits:Cross-country comparisons" 24 (24): 389-402, 1999

    54 Gruben,W.C, "Capital account liberalization and inflation" 77 : 221-225, 2002

    55 Giavazzi,F, "Can severe fiscal contractions be expansionary? Tales of two small European countries" 5 : 117-122, 1990

    56 Edwards,S, "Are devaluations contractionary" 68 : 510-518, 1986

    57 Montiel,P, "An empirical analysis of high-inflation episodes in Argentina,Brazil,and Israel" 36 : 527-549, 1989

    58 Estrada,A, "A quarterly macroeconometric model of the Spanish economy" 2004

    59 Engelhardt,H, "A pooled time-series analysis on the relation between fertility and female employment" 2005

    60 Hansson,P, "A new framework for testing the effect of government spending on growth and productivity" 81 : 381-401, 1994

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