해양생태계 복원기술개발 사업의 경제적 타당성 분석 = Economic Feasibility Analysis of Marine Ecosystem Restoration Technology Program

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The Korean government is considering implementation of the marine ecosystem restoration technology program (MERTP) to analyze the current status of the marine ecosystems and causes for the ecosystem deterioration as well as to eventually establish a master strategic plan for restoring ecosystem functions and preventing ecosystem functional loss. In order to determine likelihood of successful implementation, it is essential to perform an analysis of the economic feasibility of the program. The present study assessed economic feasibility of the MERTP. To this end, the dichotomous choice contingent valuation (CV) method is used. In particular, dichotomous choice (DC) format is employed as a method of eliciting willingness-to-pay (WTP) response to incentive-compatible mechanisms. The study also employed the spike model to deal with zero WTP responses from the DC CV survey. This survey of 1,000 randomly selected households in accordance with the guidelines provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (USA) was carried out nationwide in 2013. And, the respondents were asked in person-to-person interviews about their WTP for implementing the MERTP. The results showed that the annual mean WTP was estimated to be 5,414 won per household. Consequently, the annual benefit from the MERTP would be about 98.6 billion won for the next five years. Economic feasibility assessment utilizing the MERTP investment cost and expansion cost of the value provided that net present value, benefit/cost ratio, and internal rate of return are 337.8 billion won, 5.20, and 65.9 %, respectively, which are bigger than 0, 1.0, and 5.5 %, and that the MERTP passes the cost-benefit analysis.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

정부는 훼손된 해양생태계의 현황 및 원인을 파악하고 생태계 기능 복원 및 손실 방지 전략을 수립하기 위해 해양생태계 복원기술개발 사업의 시행을 고려하고 있다. 사업 시행 여부에 대한 판단을 위해서는 이 사업에 대한 경제적 타당성 분석이 필수적으로 요구된다. 이에 본 연구에서는 조건부 가치측정법(CVM, contingent valuation method)을 적용하여 사업 수행의 경제적 타당성을 분석하고자 한다. 지불의사 유도방법으로 유인일치적인 양분선택형 모형을 이용하되, 지불의사액 추정모형으로 영(0)의 응답을 명시적으로 다룰 수 있는 스파이크 모형을 적용한다. CVM 적용을 위한 설문조사는 미국 해양대기청의 지침에 따라 전국 1,000가구를 대상으로 일대일 개별면접을 통해 2013년에 시행되었다. 분석결과 연간 가구당 평균 지불의사액은 5,414원으로 추정되었다. 이 값을 전국으로 확장하면 향후 5년 동안 연간 약 986억원에 달한다. 이 값과 해양생태계 복원기술개발 사업의 투자비 정보를 이용하여 경제성을 분석한 결과, 순현재가치, 편익/비용 비율, 내부수익률은 각각 3,378억원, 5.20, 65.9 %로 산정되어 각각 0, 1.0, 5.5 %를 상회하므로 이 사업은 비용-편익 분석을 통과한다.

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