시간별 기온 민감도를 이용한 하절기 평일 단기 전력수요 예측

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Load forecasting is important to determine the market price and the supply reserve. The electric load in summer is influenced by meteorological elements, especially most affected by temperature. Therefore, the temperature directly related to the cooling loads must be precisely considered to improve the accuracy of the load forecasting. In this paper, we propose the load forecasting model for 24 hours during summer weekdays based on the artificial neural network. To improve the forecasting accuracy, we classify the weekdays into two groups of Monday and Tuesday-Friday, where electric load pattern is similar within each group. Furthermore, the hourly temperature sensitivity was calculated and used as an input variable. The simulation results show that this proposed approach can be applied to forecast the electric load in summer weekdays accurately.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Abstract
• 1. 서론
• 2. 본론
• 3. 사례연구
• 4. 결론
• References

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 김경환, "하절기 평일의 인공신경망을 이용한 24시간 전력수요 예측 알고리즘" 한국조명.전기설비학회 31 (31): 113-119, 2017

2 박정도, "하계 특수경부하기간의 단기 전력수요예측" 대한전기학회 62 (62): 482-488, 2013

3 송경빈, "단기수요예측 알고리즘" 대한전기학회 53 (53): 529-535, 2004

4 김미경, "계절 및 날씨 정보를 이용한 인공신경망 기반 전력수요 예측 알고리즘 개발" 대한전자공학회 53 (53): 71-78, 2016

5 Sang-lim Lee, "The estimation of weather risk in electric market" Korea Energy Economic Institute 2013

6 B. Ratner, "The correlation coefficient: Its values range between +1/ 1, or do they?" 17 (17): 139-142, 2009

7 Korea Power Exchange, "The 8th Basic Plan for Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand"

8 N. Amjady, "Short-term load forecasting of power systems by combination of wavelet transform and neuro-evolutionary algorithm" 34 (34): 46-57, 2009

9 Kunjin Chen, "Short-Term Load Forecasting With Deep Residual Networks" 10 (10): 3943-3952, 2019

10 정대원, "Short-Term Load Forecast in Microgrids using Artificial Neural Networks" 대한전기학회 66 (66): 621-628, 2017

11 Jung-Hwan Kim, "Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting Using Sensitivity By Temperature In Summer Weekdays" 351-352, 2019

12 "Korea Meteorological Administration"

13 Seong-Ho Ryu, "Improving Accuracy of Electric Load Forecasting in Summer 2014" 66 (66): 66-72, 2014

14 Korea Electric Power Corporation, "Electrical Supply Terms and Conditions"

15 Korea Electric Power Corporation, "Development of Integrated Demand Management Portal Based on Demand Forecasting" 2015

16 Oh-Sung Kwon, "Coefficient selection technique of exponential smoothing model for weekday load forecasting" 295-296, 2010

17 Korea Power Exchange, "A Study on Short-term Load Forecasting Technique and its Application" 2011

18 E. Ceperic, "A Strategy for Short-Term Load Forecasting by Support Vector Regression Machines" 28 (28): 4356-4364, 2013