Confidence building measures for Indo-Pak nuclear deterrence

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Since, the bloodstained, partition of subcontinent by British in 1947 both countries, ‘India and Pakistan’, have been involved in wars, territorial conflicts and disputes. Congress and Muslim league were the political parties of Hindu and Muslims respectively. Since congress was against the partition and wanted to see greater India, therefore they did not accept the independence of Pakistan, which put it in security dilemma because of large size, and population of India. And right after one year of independence newly born states get involved in a territorial war in 1948 followed by 1965, 1971 wars. After the defeat in 1971 war from India, Pakistan felt international humiliation and decided to have nuclear weapons in order to counter its four times larger enemy. Both countries successfully entered into nuclear club in 1998. In 1999 a limited territorial war broke out between them which lead both countries to brink of nuclear war, but presence of nuclear arsenals possessed by both states also prevented the full-fledge war and play the role of deterrence. Deterrence played effective role in prevention of war and it proved to be effective but there are limitations of deterrence and both nations paying high price for maintaining this deterrence. The instability in the region may cause the failure of deterrence, which can provoke them to use their nuclear arsenals, which cannot only be devastating for the region but also dangerous for world peace because of their strategic location. Along with deterrence peace and cooperation in the region is unavoidable for entire humanity. In the contemporary situation it’s like utopian to expect them to give up their nuclear armaments but at the same time both countries must focus on institutionalizing CBMs (Confidence building measures) to reduce enmity, bridge the gap of cooperation and interdependence on each other, and gradually aware the people of both countries that peace and cooperation can replace deterrence so that they could put pressure on their governments to make policies accordingly.
In a region, with the history of violent conflicts, the importance of CBMs (Confidence building measures), cannot be underestimated, which are very important in reducing tensions, avoiding skirmishes, and pave the way toward peace and prosperity. Both countries, being traditional enemies and nuclear powered states, are in dire need to take measures to limit hostilities and reduce stiffness. The significance of CBMs has increased after entry of both countries into nuclear group. Military and Non-military CBMs in the region, with true spirit, are unavoidable for lasting peace and stability in the region. Though it is very hard to expect major output but at slightest CBMs between them can help in structuring an essential level of confidence among them for lasting peace and cooperation in the region and prevention of limited territorial war like ‘Kargil Crisis’ when both countries put their forces on borders and risk of nuclear war was evident. However, history of CBMs in South Asia is not inspiring because of some major impediments and confines, but still their importance cannot be ignored.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Chapter 1. Introduction 1
• 1.1 Background of Study 1
• 1.2 Statement of Problem 5
• 1.3 Scope and Method of Study 7
• Chapter 2. Analysis of Source of Conflict 9
• 2.1 Historical political and ideological skirmishes 9
• 2.2 Division of Indian Subcontinent 12
• 2.3 Territorial Conflicts 13
• Chapter 3. Theoretical Background of Nuclear Deterrence 19
• 3.1 The Concept of Nuclear Deterrence 22
• 3.2 Requirements of Successful Deterrence 24
• 3.2.1 Capability 25
• 3.2.2 Credibility 26
• 3.2.3 Communication 27
• 3.3 Effectiveness of Nuclear Deterrence in South Asia 28
• Chapter 4. Stability in South Asia 32
• 4.1 Nexus between Economies and Defense Expenditures 33
• 4.1.1 Socio-Economic Condition of India 34
• 4.1.2 Socio-Economic Condition in Pakistan 36
• 4.1.3 Defense Budget of India and Pakistan 37
• 4.2 Deterrence and Stability in India and Pakistan 38
• 4.3 Security Competition in South Asia 40
• 4.4 Impact of Insurgency on Stability 41
• Chapter 5. Confidence Building Measures 45
• 5.1 Introduction to CBMs 46
• 5.2 Importance of CBMs 47
• 5.3 History of CBMs between India and Pakistan 50
• 5.4 Framework of CBMs 51
• 5.5 Major Challenges 57
• Chapter 6.Conclusion and Recommendations 60
• Bibliography 64