(A) Study on the Analysis of Determinant Factors of United States’ USFK Reduction Policy

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This thesis studies the determinant factors of the US’s United States Forces Korea (USFK) reduction policy. The factors that influenced the USFK reduction policy can be largely classified into four categories: the US’s global strategy, the US’s policy toward Korea, the threat of North Korea, and South Korea’s policy toward US. The thesis analyzes how these factors affected the implementation and suspension of policies during USFK reductions, and analyzes the determinant factors by comparing each instance. This thesis covers the four USFK reductions, excluding the massive withdrawal of the USFK immediately after the end of the Korean War and including the Nixon, Carter, post-Cold War George H. W. Bush, and George W. Bush administrations.
As a result of this study, the determinant factor found to have the greatest influence on the implementation of the USFK reduction policy was the US’s global strategy. In contrast, North Korea’s threats and South Korea’s policies toward the US have not had significant impacts. However, the most important factor in the suspension was North Korea’s threats, with the exception of the withdrawal of the 7th Infantry Division during the Nixon administration, three reductions were suspended in the course of their implementation because of North Korea’s threats.
Discussions on the reduction of the USFK are ongoing. President Biden’s alliance policy, intensifying US–China hegemony competition, and North Korea’s successive provocations increase the possibility of maintaining the size of the USFK. However, as the global security environment changes rapidly, it is necessary for the South Korean government to check the changing US strategy carefully and develop preemptive negotiation cards.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Chapter 1. Introduction 1
• 1.1 Background of the Study 1
• 1.2 Objective of the Study 2
• 1.3 Scope and Method 2
• Chapter 2. Theoretical Background 3
• 2.1 Literature Review 3
• 2.2 Theories 6
• 2.3 Analytical Framework 9
• Chapter 3. Historical Overview of the USFK 13
• Chapter 4. The United States’ USFK Reduction Policy 17
• 4.1 The Nixon Administration’s Determinants (1970-1971) 17
• 4.2 The Carter Administration’s Determinants (1978) 29
• 4.3 The George H. W. Bush Administration’s Determinants (1990-1992) 38
• 4.4 The George W. Bush Administration’s Determinants (2004-2006) 49
• Chapter 5. Assessment and Implications 59
• 5.1 Assessment 59
• 5.2 Implications 60
• Chapter 6. Conclusion 65
• References 67