신경과 의사 공급의 현재와 미래: 우리에겐 신경과의사가 충분히 있는가? - 급성 뇌졸중 치료를 중심으로 = Present and Future of Neurologist: Do We Have Enough Neurologists? - in the Aspect of Stroke Care

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Korea is one of the fastest aging country in the world. As the old population increases, incidence of stroke would rapidly increase. We estimated future of the neurologist supply in Korea, and assessed whether the present neurologist supply is appropriate to cope with future increase of stroke. We reviewed the resource database of neurologists affiliated to Korean Neurological Association. Age, sex, location of workplace, and work positions were identified. The stroke incidence was calculated from age group specific incidence data and projected age group number. Age group specific incidence data was adapted from the 2006 report of the Construction of National Surveillance System for Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease. Total 1,828 neurologists in practice were identified. Six hundred and fifty-five (30%) worked in training hospitals.
457 (21%) in other general hospitals, 305 (14%) in private clinics, and 148 (7%) worked in nursing hospitals. Assuming that the neurologists are trained 82 people per year as in the present, 2,073 neurologists would be present in 2020, 2,659 in 2030.
However, stroke incidence would show more rapid increment, and is expected about 170,000 per year in 2020 and 300,000 per year in 2030. Therefore, there will be a shortage of neurologists needed for stroke care in the future. Because of rapid increase in the elderly population, current supply of neurologists may not meet the expected need for stroke care. Therefore, national health system needs more neurologists to cope with that situation.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 이지은, "국민건강보험공단 표본 코호트 자료를 이용한 한국인 파킨슨 환자의 유병률 및 발생률" 대한신경과학회 35 (35): 191-198, 2017

2 Freeman WD, "The Workforce Task Force report: clinical implications for neurology" 81 : 479-486, 2013

3 Dall TM, "Supply and demand analysis of the current and future US neurology workforce" 81 : 470-478, 2013

4 Callaghan BC, "Role of neurologists and diagnostic tests on the management of distal symmetric polyneuropathy" 71 : 1143-1149, 2014

5 Ministry of the Interior and Safety, "Resident registration demographics [online]"

6 You Joung Kim, "Prevalence and Trends of Dementia in Korea: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis" 대한의학회 29 (29): 903-912, 2014

7 Statistics Korea, "Population Projections for Korea. [online]"

8 Ranta AA, "New Zealand's neurologist workforce: a pragmatic analysis of demand, supply and future projections" 128 : 35-44, 2015

9 Anderson H, "Neurologist shortage "critical"" 95 : 6-, 2012

10 Roger VL, "Heart disease and stroke statistics--2011 update: a report from the American Heart Association" 123 : e18-e209, 2011

11 Kim J, "Establishment of government-initiated comprehensive stroke centers for acute ischemic stroke management in South Korea" 45 : 2391-2396, 2014

12 Pimouguet C, "Effect of early referral to specialist in dementia on institutionalization and functional decline: findings from a population-based study" 49 : 819-828, 2016

13 Chong JY, "Continuum: Stroke Prevention" Lippincott Williams and Wilkins 18-34, 2005

14 Kim J, "Construction of national surveillance system for cardiovascular & cerebrovascular diseases" Health Insurance Review & Assessment Service 2006

15 Korean Statistical Information Service, "Complete Enumeration Results of the 2016 Population and Housing Census. [online]"

16 Statistics Korea, "Causes of Death Statistics in 2016. [online]"

17 Cheng EM, "Association of specialist involvement and quality of care for Parkinson's disease" 22 : 515-522, 2007

18 Ney JP, "Association of neurologist care with headache expenditures: a population-based, longitudinal analysis" 2018

19 Oh YH, "A Study on the Improvement of Imbalance between Doctors and Physicians: Supply and demand forecasts of major clinical specialty courses 2015-2030. [online]"