Higher oil prices and the world economy : the adjustment problem

목차 (Table of Contents)

• CONTENTS
• 1. Overview / Edward R. Fried ; Charles L.Schultze = 1
• The Nature of the Adjustment Process = 3
• Working Assumptions = 6
• The Industrial Countries = 16
• The Developing Countries = 33
• The International Financial System = 38
• Long-Run Costs of Higher Oil Prices : The Final Phase of Adjustment = 43
• Policy Conclusions = 56
• 2. The United States / George L. Perry = 71
• Short-Run Problems, Actions, and Impacts = 72
• Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Prices = 88
• Model Projections = 95
• Conclusion = 103
• 3. Western Europe / Giorgio Basevi = 105
• The Impact on Demand and Output during the Adjustment Period = 106
• Results = 111
• Policy Reactions in Western Europe : An Assessment = 125
• Long-Run Effects and Issues = 133
• Appendix Derivation of Multipliers for Western Europe = 141
• 4. Japan Tsunehiko Watanabe = 143
• First Reactions to the Oil Embargo = 145
• The Effect of Rising Oil Prices on the Japanese Economy : October 1973 to March 1975 = 149
• The Impact of Oil Supply Reductions : A Hypothetical Case = 155
• Impact on the Structure of Prices = 158
• Balance of Trade between Japan and Members of OPEC = 162
• Conclusions = 164
• Appendix Methodology and Assumptions = 166
• 5. The Developing Countries / Wouter Tims = 169
• Basic Assumptions = 170
• The Short-Term Impact(1974 and 1975) = 175
• Long-Term Prospects = 183
• Capital Requirements = 190
• Conclusions = 194
• 6. The International Financial System / John Williamson = 197
• The Impact = 197
• The Problems = 199
• The Responses of International Policy = 218
• 7. Trends in the International / Oil Market Joseph A. Yager ; Eleanor B. Steinberg = 227
• Review of Past Developments = 227
• Prewar Energy Trends and Prospects = 230
• The October War and Its Aftermath = 230
• Developments during 1974 and Early 1975 = 232
• The Demand for Energy in the Oil-Importing Countries, 1975-77 = 245
• Possible Future Developments = 262
• Conclusions = 274
• Index = 277
• Tables
• 1-1. Projected Oil-Import Requirements of Non-Communist Countries, 1974-77 = 9
• 1-2. Incremental Costs of Oil Imports, 1974-77 = 11
• 1-3. Expenditures of Oil-Exporting Countries on Imports of Goods and Services, 1974-77 = 13
• 1-4. Projected Reductions for Pre-October 1973 Trend Levels in OECD Exports to Oil-Importing Developing Countries = 15
• 1-5. Summary of Oil Impact Assumptions for the United States, Western Europe, and Japan, 1974-77 = 16
• 1-6. Relative Importance of Energy, Oil, and Imported Oil in the Three Regional Economies, 1973 = 18
• 1-7. Selected Factors Affecting the Magnitude of the Initial Economic Impact of Higher Oil Prices in 1974 = 19
• 1-8. Changes in Real GNP, 1973-74 = 21
• 1-9. Major Oil-Related Factors Affecting Aggregate Demand as a Percentage of GNP : The Combined Impact on the United States, Western Europe, and Japan,1974-77 = 29
• 1-10. Alternative Estimates for Additional Investment in Fossil Fuels At-tributable to Increased Oil Prices, OECD Countries, 1977 = 31
• 1-11. Direct Impact of Higher Oil Prices on the Developing Countries : Estimates for 1974 and Projections for 1977 = 34
• 1-12. Total Costs to Consumer, National Economic Losses, and Transfers of Income from Higher Oil Prices in the United States, Western Europe, and Japan in 1980 = 47
• 1-13. Shifts in Dependence upon Imports and in Consumption of Oil in the United States, Western Europe, and Japan, 1972 and 1980 = 49
• 1-14. Alternative Estimates of Oil Imports and of Costs to Consumers, National Economic Losses, and Income Transfers from Higher Oil Prices : The United States, Western Europe, and Japan Combined, 1980 = 50
• 1-15. Consequences for Imports and National Economic Losses of a $3 Tariff Imposed by the United States, Western Europe, and Japan, Using Three Different Assumptions concerning the World Price of Oil = 52
• 2-1. A Comparison of U.S. Imports and Domestic Production of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products, 1972-74 = 75
• 2-2. Import Prices for Crude Oil and Major Petroleum Products = 76
• 2-3. Crude Oil Prices by Category = 79
• 2-4. Rising Values of Petroleum Products and Their Sources = 82
• 2-5. Gasoline as a Percentage of Total Refinery Output = 85
• 2-6. Investment Spending Plans for 1974 = 93
• 2-7. Net Export Effects of Higher Oil Prices = 94
• 2-8. The Effects of the Oil Crisis : Federal Reserve Board Econometric Model = 96
• 2-9. The Effects of the Oil Crisis : Michigan Quarterly Model = 96
• 3-1. Initial Shocks : Changes in Exogenous Variables Assumed in Model Simulations = 107
• 3-2. International Elasticity Multipliers = 109
• 3-3. Estimated Effect of Higher Oil Prices on GNP in Western Europe = 112
• 3-4. Additional Annual Investment in Energy-Producing Sectors Attributable to Higher Oil Prices = 116
• 3-5. The Effect of Higher($10) Oil Prices, Offset by Larger Net Energy Investment, on GNP of Western Europe = 116
• 3-6. Changes in the Western European Trade Account Attributable to Higher($10) Oil Prices = 118
• 3-7. Actual and Forecast Levels of GNP in Western Europe Compared with Trend Growth of GNP Adjusted for Oil Price Increase = 131
• 4-1. Major Assumptions Used in Three Economic Models = 151
• 4-2. Changes in Major Economic Variables, Fiscal 1972 to 1974 = 152
• 4-3. Simulation of Quarterly Impact of Policy Changes and Higher Oil Prices on the Japanese Economy = 154
• 4-4. Impact of Reduced Oil Supplies on Major Components of GNP during Three Fiscal Years = 158
• 4-5. Quarterly Simulations of Annual Changes in Real Rates of Growth = 159
• 4-6. Impact of Increase in the Price of Oil from $3 to $9 per Barrel on Selected Wholesale Prices = 160 160
• 4-7. Simulation of Price Increases for Selected Groups of Industries, 1972-76 = 161
• 4-8. Projections of Oil Imports and Associated Changes in Real GNP = 162
• 4-9. Projected Consequences of Current Monetary and Fiscal Policies = 165
• 5-1. Past and Projected Growth of GNP in OECD Countries = 172
• 5-2. Alternative Assumptions concerning Prices of Saudi Arabian Light Crude Oil, 1973-80 = 174
• 5-3. Principal Economic Characteristics of Three Groups of Developing Countries, 1968-72 = 176
• 5-4. Energy Characteristics of Three Groups of Developing Countries, 1972 = 177
• 5-5. Projected Prices of Primary Commodities in International Trade, 1972-80 = 178
• 5-6. Price Changes in International Trade of Developing Countries, 1973-75 = 178
• 5-7. Gains and Losses from Terms of Trade, 1973-75 = 179
• 5-8. 1973 Balance of Trade Expressed in 1974 and 1975 Prices = 180
• 5-9. Balance of Payments of Oil-Importing Developing Countries, 1973-75 = 181
• 5-10. Actual and Projected Growth of Exports of Developing Countries, 1967／69-1980 = 187
• 5-11. Export Volume and Price Prospects, 1968-80 = 188
• 5-12. Net Capital Flows to Developing Countries in 1973 = 190
• 5-13. Net Capital Requirements for a Growth Rate of 6 Percent, 1975-80 = 191
• 6-1. Current Balances = 199
• 6-2. A Comparison of Capital Accumulation and Oil Deficits = 202
• 6-3. Approximate Estimates of Appropriate Increases in Target Current-Account Deficits for Major Industrial Countries = 214
• 6-4. Effects of the Oil Price Increase on the International Distribution of Income = 217
• 7-1. Estimated Market Prices of Saudi Arabian Light Crude Oil in 1974 = 234
• 7-2. Estimated Crude Oil Production in Non-Communist Nations, 1973 and 1974 = 237
• 7-3. Market Shares of Principal Non-Communist Oil-Producing Countries, 1973 and 1974 = 238
• 7-4. Real GNP Growth Rates for Major Industrialized Areas, 1973-77 = 246
• 7-5. Energy Consumption in the United States in 1973 and 1974, with Forecasts for 1975, 1976, and 1977 = 250
• 7-6. Energy Consumption in OECD Europe in 1973 and 1974, with Forecasts for 1975, 1976, and 1977 = 254
• 7-7. Energy Consumption in Japan in 1973 and 1974, with Forecasts for 1975, 1976, and 1977 = 256
• 7-8. Base-Case Forecast of Energy and Oil Consumption Compared with Forecast Using a Doubling of the Assumed Price Elasticity = 258
• 7-9. World Oil Consumption and Import Requirements in 1973 and 1974, with Forecasts for 1975, 1976, and 1977 = 260
• Figures
• 3-1. The Effect of Increased Domestic Production of Energy on Production Costs and Rents = 115
• 3-2. The Long-Run Terms-of-Trade Loss Attributable to Higher Energy Prices = 135