殼物의 適正販賣時期 = Optimum Marketing Strategies for Grain Products

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study is intended to determine the optimum marketing time for grain products; rice and barley. The farmer has been faced apparently uncertainty caused by weather variation, price fluctuation and technological changes.
Hence, one of the most important functions of individual farmer is to set up an optimum strategy for marketing time for the products they produce. Moreover, nonsystematic price variation over season is found especially in the case of grain products, in the short run are affected by the time and amount of grain import, price policy, expectation of the coming products, and so on.
Thus, this study is decided to provide farmers as well as grain dealers with some information about the optimum marketing time which secures a maximum profit as greatly as possible, when price uncertainty has been taken into account, under assumption of several storage cost levels including the interest, risk, and the like.
In other words, the game theory models have been applied to the monthly time series data of rice and barley prices for this objective. All price series are expressed in 1965 constant price, and are converted into November and July present price for rice and barley, respectively, when the storage costs have been considered.
The results can be summaried as follows;
1. Rice marketing strategy
a) Maximin criterion
Interest rate Strategy selected
(%) Single strategy Mixed strategy
0 Sell in Aug. Sell in Aug.
1.5 Sell in Aug. Sell in Nov., Feb., Aug., Sep.
2 Sell in Nov. Sell in Nov., Aug.
3 Sell in Nov. Sell in Nov., Dec.
b) Benefit criterion
Interest rate Strategy selected
(%) Single strategy Mixed strategy
0 Sell in May, Jun. Sell in Nov., May, Jun., Aug., Oct.
1.5 Sell in Nov., Feb. Sell in Nov., Jan., Aug., Sep.
2 Sell in Nov. Sell in Nov., Feb., May
3 Sell in Nov. Sell in Nov., Dec.
c) Regret criterion
Interest rate(%) Strategy selected
0 Sell in Jun.
1.5 Sell in May
2 Sell in May
3 Sell in Nov.
d) Laplace's criterion
Interest rate Strategy selected
(%)
0 Sell in Jul.
1.5 Sell in Jul.
2 Sell in Jul.
3 Sell in Nov.
2. Barley marketing strategy
a) Maximin criterion
Interest rate Strategy selected
(%) Single strategy Mixed strategy
0 Sell in Apr. Sell in Dec., Mar., Apr.
1.5 Sell in Dec. Sell in Dec., Feb., Apr.
2 Sell in Dec. Sell in Dec., Feb., Apr.
3 Sell in Dec. Sell in Dec., Feb., Apr.
b) Benefit criterion
Interest rate Strategy selected
(%) Single strategy Mixed strategy
0 Sell in Apr. Sell in Dec., Mar., Apr.
1.5 Sell in Apr. Sell in Dec., Jan., May
2 Sell in Apr., Jul Sell in Jul., Dec., Jan., Apr.
3 Sell in Jul. Sell in Jul., Dec., Apr.
c) Regret criterion
Interest rate(%) Strategy selected
0 Sell in May
1.5 Sell in Apr.
2 Sell in Apr.
3 Sell in Apr.
d) Laplace's criterion
Interest rate(%) Strategy selected
0 Sell in May
1.5 Sell in Apr.
2 Sell in Apr.
3 Sell in Jul.
These results are suggest that the governments purchasing policy is effective in the sense that price is comparatively equalized to season for rice. However, barley puchasing policy seems to weak to equalized the price level over season thus far.
Moreover, rice price control policy by government caused a destruction of marketing channel which is function of merchant under the society of capitalism.
As mentioned above, it would be too sweeping to say that the results are always proper to every individual farm, because selection of the strategy for a farmer will likely depend on his psychological make-up.