Index analysis of two different SDM technique : MaxEnt and CLIMEX

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The first record of Melon thrips, Thrips palmi Karny, was in 1993 in Korea, and the species has become severe pest in agricultural industry. We used two different SDMs(Species Distribution Model) which have different approaches to analyse potential distribution of the pest species in climate change scenario, MaxEnt and CLIMEX. The MaxEnt model uses historical occurrence records with environmental variables to estimate the realized niche, and CLIMEX model simulates the fundamental niche of the object based on the seasonal phenology. In MaxEnt simulation, we reduced the number of variables to avoid multi-collinearity problem until we had no pairs with an absolute Pearson correlation coefficient higher than 0.8. BIO1(Annual Mean Temperature), BIO2(Mean diurnal range), BIO3(Isothermality), BIO4(Temperature seasonality) were finally selected as predictor, and we used 10 fold cross validation option to replicate. The averaged results were used to index analysis. The CLIMEX results, The Ecoclimate Index(EI), were also normalized in 0 to 1 scale to analysis. Under RCP 8.5 climate change scenario, in 2070s, the distribution of Thrips palmi was predicted to expand their territory overall agricultural area in Korea.