최근 주택시장 추세변환에 관한 연구

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study focuses on the trend change of recent housing market. If the monthly trends of housing sale price and rental(jeon-se) price change simultaneously, it is supposed that the housing market is moved by the real prospective customers rather than by the speculators. For example, if the market changes by real customers, when the sale price moves up the rental price will go up because they may not be able to pay the expensive sale price so stay in their rental homes. Conversely, if the rental price goes up, they will try to purchase their own houses because the gap between sale price and rental price will be smaller. A Pettitt test is used to disclose whether the main body of the housing market is either the real consumers or the speculators. It is speculated that the recent housing market unstability in Korea is caused by behaviors of real consumers to fill the gaps between the sale price and rental price.