Climate technology strategies . 1 , Controlling greenhouse gases. policy and technology options

목차 (Table of Contents)

• CONTENTS
• PREFACE = Ⅴ
• EXECUTIVE SUMMARY = XIII
• PART Ⅰ GLOBAL AND EUROPEAN ENERGY AND EMISSIONS OUTLOOK = 1
• 1 INTRODUCTION = 3
• 1.1 OBJECTIVES = 4
• 1.2 MODELS USED = 5
• 1.3 UNCERTAINTIES = 6
• 1.4 PLAN OF THE VOLUME = 6
• 2 GLOBAL OUTLOOK = 7
• 2.1 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK = 8
• 2.1.1 Economic and Population Trends = 8
• 2.1.2 Economic Projections : the GDP Dynamics = 9
• 2.1.3 Dhanges in per Capita GDP Profiles = 13
• 2.2 ENERGY OUTLOOK = 14
• 2.2.1 Energy Resources and Prices = 14
• 2.2.2 World Primary Energy Consumption = 17
• 2.2.3 Energy Balances by Main Regions = 18
• 2.3 CO₂ EMISSIONS OUTLOOK = 26
• 2.3.1 Trends in Carbon Emissions = 26
• 2.4 COMPARISONS OF PROJECTIONS OF THE WORLD ENERGY SYSTEM TO 2030 : SIMILARITIES AND DIFFERENCES = 28
• 2.5 CONCLUSIONS = 31
• 3 EUROPEAN OUTLOOK = 33
• 3.1 THE BASELINE SCENARIO : THE EUROPEAN ECONOMY TO 2030 = 33
• 3.1.1 Introduction = 33
• 3.1.2 Short Run Projections : 1995 - 2000 = 34
• 3.1.3 Long Run Projections : 2001 - 2030 = 35
• 3.1.4 Energy and Emission Outlook = 41
• PART Ⅱ MEETING THE KYOTO TRAGETS : THE ROLE OF POLICY = 47
• 4 INTRODUCTION = 49
• 5 EUROPEAN POLICIES FOR MEETING THE KYOTO TRAGETS = 53
• 5.1 INTRODUCTION = 53
• 5.2 SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS = 56
• 5.2.1 The KATREN Scenario = 56
• 5.2.2 The C$$O_2$$ Tax Scenario = 59
• 5.3 KATREN SCENARIO RESULTS = 60
• 5.3.1 Overview = 60
• 5.3.2 Primary Energy Demand = 61
• 5.3.3 Power and Heat Generation = 62
• 5.3.4 Final Energy Demand = 62
• 5.3.5 CO₂ Emissions = 64
• 5.4 THE CO₂ TAX SCENARIO = 66
• 5.4.1 Overview = 66
• 5.4.2 Primary Energy Demand = 68
• 5.4.3 Power and Heat Generation = 68
• 5.4.4 Final Energy Demand = 69
• 5.4.5 CO₂ Emissions = 70
• 5.5 COMPARISON OF SCENARIO = 71
• 5.6 EXTRAPOLATION TO EU-15 = 74
• 5.7 EVALUATION OF COSTS = 75
• 5.7.1 Definitions and Assumptions = 75
• 5.8 AVERAGE COST COMPUTATIONS = 77
• 5.8.1 Model's Discount Rate = 78
• 5.8.2 At 8% Discount Rate = 79
• 5.9 MARGINAL COST COMPUTATIONS = 79
• 5.10 OTHER ECONOMIC EFFECTS = 81
• 6 INTERNATIONAL DIMENSIONS = 83
• 6.1 INTRODUCTION = 83
• 6.1.1 Limits and Interest of a Sectoral Approach to the Evaluation of the Reduction Strategies = 84
• 6.1.2 Effect of a Shadow Carbon Tax and Analysis of Reduction Potential According to Region = 87
• 6.2 CONCLUSION = 96
• PART Ⅲ CONTROLLING EMISSIONS IN THE LONGER RUN : THE ROLE OF THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY = 99
• 7 INTRODUCTION TO RART Ⅲ = 101
• 8 POWER GENERATION TECHNOLOGY CLUSTERS : PRESENT STATUS AND ITS POTENTIAL = 103
• 8.1 NUCLEAR INDUSTRY : A PARADIGM IN CRISIS = 103
• 8.1.1 Incremental Innovation in Nuclear Development = 105
• 8.1.2 Renewed Technology Push? The Heritage of Advanced Reactor Programmes = 105
• 8.1.3 Concers with the Social Acceptability of Nuclear Power = 107
• 8.1.4 Clean Coal Technologies = 108
• 8.1.5 Fuel Cells for Stationary and Mobile Applications = 120
• 8.1.6 Drawbacks to Diffusion = 122
• 8.1.7 Wind Power Generation = 126
• 8.1.8 Photovolitaic Electricity = 133
• 8.1.9 PV Cell Products = 137
• 9 TECHNOLOGY SCENARIOS TO 2030 : BASELINE AND ALTERNATIVE TECHNOLOGY SCENARIOS = 139
• 9.1.1 Energy Technology Baseline Projection = 140
• 9.1.2 World Energy Technology Scenarios = 141
• 9.1.3 Technical Note : Running the Scenarios = 150
• 9.2 SUMMARY OF ASSUMPTION = 152
• 10 SCENARIO IMPACTS ON WORLD ENERGY AND EMISSIONS = 157
• 10.1 BASELINE ELECTRICITY TRENDS = 157
• 10.1.1 The Nuclear Scenario = 160
• 10.1.2 The Clean Coal Scenario = 163
• 10.1.3 The Gas Technology Scenario = 165
• 10.1.4 The Fuel Cell Scenario = 171
• 10.1.5 The Renewable Energy Technology Scenario = 174
• 10.2 CONCLUSION = 179
• 11 TECHNOLOGY STORIES WITH PRIMES2 FOR THE EUROPEAN UNION ; AN ANALUSIS FOR DEMAND SIDE, POWER AND STEAM GENERATION SECTOR = 181
• 11.1 INTRODUCTION = 181
• 11.2 DEFINITION OF TECHNOLOGY PROGRESS STORIES = 182
• 11.3 THE BASELINE SCENARIO = 184
• 11.3.1 World Energy Prices = 184
• 11.3.2 The Baseline Scenario = 185
• 11.4 THE SUPPLY SIDE STORIES = 191
• 11.4.1 The Nuclear Story = 191
• 11.4.2 The Clean Coal Story = 192
• 11.4.3 The Gas Story = 193
• 11.4.4 The Fuel Cells Story = 193
• 11.4.5 The Renewable Story = 194
• 11.4.6 The Pessimistic Supply Side Story = 196
• 11.5 THE DEMAND SIDE STORY = 201
• 11.5.1 Effects from Demand Side Progress = 201
• 11.5.2 Effects from Combining Demand and Supply Progress = 207
• 11.6 CONCLUDING REMARKS = 212
• 12 ISSUES FOR EU R&D STRATEGY = 215
• 12.1 MEDIUM TERM ISSUES : FASTER ADOPTION OF IMPROVED TECHNOLOGIES = 216
• 12.2 LONG TERM ISSUES : NEED FOR MORE R&D = 218
• 13 CARBON REMOVAL, FUEL CYCLE SHIFT AND EFFICIENCY MEASURES : A SECTORAL VIEW = 223
• 13.1 CARBON REMOVAL AND SEQUESTRATION = 224
• 13.2 SEPARATION AND RECOVERY PROCESSES = 225
• 13.2.1 CO₂ Disposal and Storage Processes = 229
• 13.2.2 Costs and Potentials of Carbon Sequestration, Removal, and Storage = 232
• 13.3 OTHER REDUCTION OPTIONS = 234
• 13.3.1 Demand Side Measures = 234
• 13.3.2 Dematerialization and Recycling = 234
• 13.3.3 Efficiency Improvements and Technological Change = 234
• 13.3.4 Fuel Mix Changes = 236
• 13.3.5 Removal and Sequestration = 238
• 13.3.6 Energy Conversion Efficiency = 239
• 13.3.7 Fuel Mix Changes = 242
• 13.4 THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR = 244
• 13.4.1 Dematerialization = 244
• 13.4.2 Energy Efficiency Improvement and Process Changes = 245
• 13.4.3 Fuel Mix Changes = 250
• 13.4.4 Combined Measures in the Steel Industry = 250
• 13.5 THE TRANSPORTATION SECTOR = 251
• 13.5.1 Efficiency Improvements = 251
• 13.5.2 Demand Side Measures = 252
• 13.5.3 Fuel Switching = 253
• 13.6 THE RESIDENTIAL & COMMERCIAL SECTOR = 256
• 13.6.1 Efficiency Improvements = 257
• 13.6.2 Fuel Mix Changes = 259
• 14 APPENDIX Ⅰ DETAILED MACROECONOMIC AND SECTORAL PROJECTIONS = 261
• 15 APPENDIX Ⅱ BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF MODELS USED IN THE STUDY = 277
• 15.1 THE PRIMES MODEL = 277
• 15.1.1 Introduction = = 277
• 15.1.2 Scope and Objectives = 277
• 15.1.3 PRIMES Model Design = 279
• 15.1.4 The PRIMES Moduls = 280
• 15.1.5 The Industrial Demand Model = 287
• 15.1.6 The Households Sub Model = 290
• 15.1.7 The Teriary Sector Sub Model = 292
• 15.1.8 The Power and Steam Generation Sub Model of PRIMES = 295
• 15.1.9 The Oil Refinery Model of PRIMES = 297
• 15.1.10 The Transport Model = 323
• 15.1.11 Primary Energy Supply, Transformations and Pricing Sub Model = 326
• 15.1.12 Global Environmental Contraints and Pollution Permits Markets = 328
• 15.1.13 Gerneral Structure of the Demand Side Sub Models = 331
• 15.1.14 Industrial Sector = 333
• 15.1.15 Teriary Sector = 339
• 15.1.16 Residential Sector = 342
• 15.1.17 Transport Sector = 344
• 15.2 THE POLES MODEL = 345
• 15.2.1 Main Characteristics of the POLES Model = 346
• 15.2.2 Structure of the Model = 346
• 15.2.3 Simulation of Primary Energy Consumption = 347
• 15.2.4 Development and Production of Fossil Fuels = 348
• 15.2.5 International Energy Prices and Trade = 349
• LIST OF FIGURES = 351
• LIST OF TABLES = 355
• REFERENCES = 359