International law and foreign-policy crises: Evidence from United States decision-makers.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Foreign-policy crises have the potential to profoundly affect conditions within the international system and can be wholly destabilizing to those states directly involved in a crisis. In an effort to better understand the dynamics associated with such episodes, analysts have endeavored to gain insights into the factors which are relevant to crisis decision-making processes. Consistent with this tradition, the research presented here examines one factor within the decision-making process—international law—to determine when crisis decision-makers are most likely to turn to international law for guidance and to assess the effect of such considerations on the evolution of a crisis.
A review of the personal memoirs of officials involved in decision processes associated with forty-six U.S. foreign-policy crises that occurred between 1945 and 1992 reveal that officials made reference to international legal principles in more than half of the crises that emerged during this period. The probability that an individual decision-maker will reference international law is significantly affected by personal characteristics of the decision-maker, by the political context in which a crisis occurs, and by the nature of the crisis itself.
Consideration of international legal principles by U.S. officials in the midst of a foreign-policy crisis is significantly related to the nature of the crisis outcome. All states are more likely to be satisfied with the outcome of a crisis when such considerations are made, but the U.S. is less likely to emerge victorious from a crisis when its decision-makers consider international legal concerns. In addition, the probability that a subsequent crisis will emerge between the U.S. and its adversaries within five years of the end of a crisis is significantly higher when U.S. officials reference international law during crisis deliberations.
These findings provide insights about the nature of the crisis decision-making process and indicate a relationship between that decision-making process and the outcome of the crisis. The nature of the effect on crisis outcomes, though, raises questions about the degree to which a state should base its foreign policy decisions on the principles of international law, especially in times of crisis.