농지의 가격결정 요인에 관한 연구 = Determinants of Farmland Prices in Korea

국문 초록 (Abstract)

이론적으로 토지개발 가능성과 기대이익은 토지가치에 큰 영향을 미친다. 개발가능성 및 시점은 토지의 입지와 밀접하게 관련되어 있다. 수 십년에 걸쳐 농지에서 도시용지로의 개발을 경험한 우리나라에서 농지가격은 비농업적 요소들로부터 큰 영향을 받는다. 즉 농지의 위치, 이용규제, 물리적 특성, 주변여건 등으로부터 복합적으로 영향을 받는다. 본고는 농지가격 및 특성정보에 대한 대량데이터를 이용하여 농지가격 결정모형을 실증적으로 분석한 연구이다. 특히 지역적 차이를 나타내는 입지요인의 대리변수로 광역시와의 거리, 용도지역, 간선도로와의 거리를 설정하였고, 이들 항목이 통계적으로 모두 유의미하다는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 나아가 입지에 따라 농지의 사용가치와 시장가치 사이에 현격한 차이가 존재하는 것을 밝힌다. 두 가치의 차이로부터 비농업적 가치의 규모와 비중을 대략 구할 수 있었다. 도시화가 발생된 지역에서 비농업적 가치의 비중이 약 90%에 이르는 것으로 나타났다. 이를 포함하는 평가되는 현행 재산세 과세가치체계에 대한 심도있는 고찰이 필요하다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Theoretically, the feasibility and expected profits of land development have a great effect on land value. The possibility and timing of development are closely related to the location of the land. Farmland prices are significantly influenced by non-agricultural factors in Korea, where farmland development has occurred for several decades. Non-agricultural factors include location, land use regulations, physical characteristics, and neighborhood conditions. This study is an empirical analysis of the farmland pricing model using the large-scale appraisal data. Distance from metropolitan cities, zoning, and distance from main roads are established as proxy variables for location. All of them are found to have a significant impact. Furthermore, depending on the location, a wide gap exists between the use value of farmland and market value. The proportion of non-agricultural value can be roughly obtained from the difference in the two values. The proportion in urbanized areas is about 90 percent. Therefore, the property tax assessment system based on the only market value must be reviewed.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 阿部 㳓一郞, "不動産取引價格情報를を用いた 農地價格形成要因 回歸分析: 宅地化の 影響に 關する 實證分析" 不動産鑑定実務硏究會 55 (55): 31-44, 2018

2 손학기, "회귀-크리깅 모형을 활용한 농지가격의 추정" 국토연구원 89 : 39-53, 2016

3 연합뉴스, "쌀값 하락에 벼농사 수익성 최악…소득률 50.2%로 역대 최저"

4 이정환, "농지가격의 결정요인과 요인별 영향력: 현재가치이론 검정과 충격반응분석" 한국농촌경제연구원 19 (19): 1-16, 1996

5 권오상, "농지가격의 결정요인: 다단계 특성가격모형" 한국농업경제학회 49 (49): 113-139, 2008

6 www.okdab.com, "농어업·농어촌 종합정보포털 옥답"

7 유승동, "농경지 및 임야지의 유용성과 감정평가" 한국부동산연구원 28 (28): 53-63, 2018

8 통계청, "농가경제조사" 2017

9 Brownstone, D., "Zoning, Returns to Scale, and the Value of Undeveloped Land" MIT Press 73 (73): 699-704, 1991

10 Anderson, E. J., "Use-Value Assessment Tax Expenditures in Urban Areas" Elsevier 48 (48): 443-452, 2000

11 Livanis G., "Urban Sprawl and Farmland Prices" Agricultural and Applied Economics Association 88 (88): 915-929, 2006

12 Shultz, S. D., "The Use of Census Data for Hedonic Price Estimates of Open-Space Amenities and Land Use" Kluwer Academic Publishers 22 (22): 239-252, 2001

13 Dillard, J. G., "The Impacts of the Tax-Deferred Exchange Provision on Farm Real Estate Values" University of Wisconsin Press 89 (89): 479-489, 2013

14 Capozza, D. R., "The Fundamentals of Land Prices and Urban Growth" Elsevier 26 (26): 295-306, 1989

15 Ay, Jean-Sauveur, "The Empirical Content of the Present Value Model: A Survey of the Instrumental Uses of Farmland Prices" Centre for European Policy Studies 2013

16 Plantinga, A. J., "The Effects of Potential Land Development on Agricultural Land Prices" Elsevier 52 (52): 561-581, 2002

17 Anderson, E. J., "Property Taxes for Agriculture: Use-Value Assessment and Urbanization across the United States" Mercatus Center at George Mason University 2015

18 Guntermann, K. L., "Parcel Size and Land Value: A Comparison of Approaches" American Real Estate Society 37 (37): 281-320, 2015

19 Borchers, A., "Linking Price of Agricultural Land to Use Values and Amenities" Agricultural and Applied Economics Association 96 (96): 1307-1320, 2014

20 Zhang, W., "Housing Market Bust and Farmland Values: Identifying the Changing Influence of Proximity to Urban Centers" University of Wisconsin Press 91 (91): 605-626, 2015

21 Ma, S., "Hedonic Valuation of Farmland Using Sale Prices versus Appraised Values" University of Wisconsin Press 88 (88): 1-15, 2012

22 Rosen, S., "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets:Product Differentiation in Pure Competition" The University of Chicago Press 82 (82): 34-55, 1974

23 Brueckner, J. K.., "Growth Controls and Land Values in an Open City" University of Wisconsin Press 66 (66): 237-248, 1990

24 Falk, B., "Formally Testing the Present Value Model of Farmland Prices" Agricultural and Applied Economics Association 73 (73): 1-10, 1991

25 Chicoine, D. L., "Farmland Values at the Urban Fringe: An Analysis of Sale Prices" University of Wisconsin Press 57 (57): 353-362, 1981

26 Huang, H., "Factors Influencing Illinois Farmland Values" Agricultural and Applied Economics Association 88 (88): 458-470, 2006

27 Guiling, P., "Effect of Urban Proximity on Agricultural Land Values" University of Wisconsin Press 85 (85): 252-264, 2009

28 Campbell, J., "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models" The University of Chicago Press 95 (95): 1062-1088, 1987

29 Hallam, D., "Co-Integration Analysis and the Determinants of Land Prices" Agricultural Economics Society 43 (43): 28-37, 1992

30 Colwell, P., "Area, Time, Centrality and the Value of Urban Land" University of Wisconsin Press 54 (54): 514-519, 1978

31 Anderson, E. J., "Agricultural Use‐Value Property Tax Assessment: Estimation and Policy Issues" Wiley 32 (32): 71-94, 2012

32 Pope, C. A., "Agricultural Productive and Consumptive Use Components of Rural Land Values in Texas" Agricultural &Applied Economics Association 67 (67): 81-86, 1985

33 Plantinga, A. J., "Agricultural Land Values and the Value of Rights to Future Land Development" University of Wisconsin Press 77 (77): 56-67, 2001

34 Palmquist, R. B., "A Hedonic Study of the Effects of Erosion Control and Drainage on Farmland Values" Agricultural & Applied Economics Association 71 (71): 55-62, 1989

35 Maddison, D., "A Hedonic Analysis of Agricultural Land Prices in England and Wales" Oxford University Press 27 (27): 519-532, 2000

36 동북지방통계청, "2011년 경지면적조사 결과 보도자료(대구 경북, 강원)"