미-중 무역분쟁의 경제적 효과와 세계경제 함의

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study analyzes the potential economic effects of a trade war between the U.S. and China. The CGE model is used to estimate the macroeconomic variables of each country and the change in imports/exports by industry by considering three different scenarios: (i) the US imposes a 25% of tariff on China; (ii) the US and China impose a 25% tariff bilaterally; (iii) the United States expands protection in vehicles and metals to Korea, Japan, and the EU.
According to the results of the study, when the US and China initiate a trade war, GDP and welfare of both countries decline. Chinas decline in GDP and welfare are larger than those of the United States, which implies a trade war is more favorable to the U.S. than to China. In the long run, Chinas GDP and welfare decline widens further. While the trade volumes of the US and China are greatly reduced, the trade volumes of other countries does not significantly fluctuate.
Finally, if the US extends protection policy to Korea, Japan and the EU, it creates undesirable effects on the US. In particular, damage to the US jeopardizes its advantageous position in a trade war with China. In order to emphasize the unfairness of protectionist policy and the damage to Korean industry, Korea needs to establish a strategy to counter US protectionist policy.

참고문헌 (Reference)

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