필리핀 두테르테 행정부의 방문군지위협정(VFA) 파기문제 연구 = A Study on the Abrogation Issue of the Visiting Forces Agreement of the Duterte Administration in the Philippines

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this study was to find out what caused the Duterte administration to decide and suspend the abrogation of the VFA, and to analyze or interpret it closely. Furthermore, in the case of research methodology, it basically relied on the literature research method, but the author directly presented an ‘analytical framework’ to attempt logical analysis and interpretation within the framework. In the result of research, the Duterte administration’s abrogation issue of the VFA was analyzed and interpreted from the perspective of foreign affairs, security, economy, trade, investment, and OFW’s remittances.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구의 목적은 두테르테 행정부가 VFA 파기 및 파기보류를 결정하게 된 원인이 무엇인지를 규명해 보고, 이를 면밀히 분석 또는 해석해 보고자 하는 것이었다. 또한 연구방법론의 경우 기본적으로 문헌연구방법에 의존하되 필자가 ‘분석틀’을 직접 제시하여, 그 틀 속에서 논리적 분석과 해석을 시도한 것이었다. 두테르테 행정부의 VFA 파기문제는 외교안보 및 경제통상 분야의 관점에서 분석 및 해석되었는데, 그중에서 가장 주목해야 할 세 가지만 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 미국이 두테르테 행정부의 이른바 “마약과의 전쟁”을 인권문제와 연결시켜 비난의 수위를 계속 높여가자 이에 대한 불편한 심기를 외교적으로 드러낸 것이 두테르테 행정부의 VFA 파기문제로 해석된다. 둘째, 두테르테 행정부의 VFA 파기 및 파기보류 결정의 원인은 미국과 VFA, 더 나아가 MDT를 재협상하기 위한 “전술적 도박”일 개연성이 높은 것으로 분석된다. 셋째, OFW의 국내 송금액 중 1/3 이상이 미국으로부터 벌어들이는 수익이라는 점을 감안할 때 두테르테 대통령이 VFA의 파기 결정을 쉽게 내리기에는 어려웠을 것으로 보인다.

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