일본의 경상수지와 엔화환율간 관계분석 = Japan`s Current Account and the Exchange rate of the Yen

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The appreciation of the Japanese yen is pointed out as one of the important factors for Japan`s stagnation. However, Japan`s current account surplus has shown a increasing trend, in contrast to the worsening deficit of the U.S. This paper analyzes the relationship between Japan`s current account balance and exchange rate of the yen using a structural vector autoregressive model based on the portfolio balance approach. Our empirical analysis on the period between 1980 and 2010 shows that the yen`s exchange rate has a significant effect on current account balance. However, such an effect does not last long during the recession period (1996:I-2010:IV). Meanwhile, current account surplus appears to have appreciated the yen during the same period. These findings indicate that Japan`s increasing current account surplus may have been driven by other factors such as the favorable foreign demand. The hypothesis that Japan`s current account surplus does not response to exchange rate changes is highly exaggerated. The appreciation of the yen should have exerted a negative effect on overall economic activities. The yen depreciation may help increase exports and improve economic conditions of Japan. But, such an effect will not last long. However, the effect of intervention is limited, if any. Accordinlgy, vitalization of consumption and investment is prerequisite to coping with economic recession.

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