우리나라 여성의 고위험음주 변화추세에 관한 연령 - 기간 - 코호트 분석 = Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of High-risk Drinking Trend among Female Adults in Korea

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

There has been a increasing trend o f high risk drinking (HRD) among female adults in Korea. This paper aims to decompose the trend into their age, period, and cohort components. From 2005 through 2107, 13 cross-sectional waves of Korean Health and Nutritional Examination Survey were employed to analyze Age- Period-Cohort effects with a log-linear method of constrained generali zed linear model (CGLM) using R package (apc.fit.function). While graphical descriptions of trend of HR D sho wed a linear increase, more discernable among female at age groups of 19-29 and of 30 -39 in particular, statistical parameters estimated by APC-CGLM revealed different pattern of age effects, which rate of HRD was peaked at age group o f 40 -44 with a decline after that. Also, the models showed a cohort effects among both male and female adults with recent born cohort reporting a higher rates of HRD, which was more distinguishable for female adults. Some period effects were observed with a limitation of short ranges o f years. Some possible explanations about APC effects observed were discussed. Also, some policy measurements are prepared to respond actively to increasing trend of HRD in future.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구는 우리나라 여성의 고위험음주가 지속 증가하고 있어 이에 대한 정책적 대안 모색의 필요 성이 제기되고 있는바 여성의 고위험음주율의 변화추이를 보다 분석적으로 파악하는 것을 목적으로 , 수행되었다 이를 위해 국민건강영양조사 년부터 년까지의 자료를 활용하여 기술분석과 로 . 2005 2017 그선형모형을 적용한 연령 기간 코호트분석을 실시하였다 기간효과분석의 기준연도는 년 코호 - - . 2005 , 트효과분석의 기준 출생코호트는 년생으로 하였다 1975 . 기술분석결과 여성의 고위험음주율은 년 이후 지속적으로 증가하였으며 특히 세 2005 , 19~29 , 세 연령군에서의 고위험음주율 증가추이가 뚜렷하게 나타났다 그러나 연령 기간 코호트효과 30~39 . , , 를 분리하여 분석한 결과 세 연령층에서의 고위험음주율이 가장 높아서 기술분석과는 차이가 40~44 있었다 특히 코호트 효과가 뚜렷하게 나타나 최근에 태어난 코호트일수록 고위험음주율이 높아지는 . 양상을 확인되었다 따라서 여성의 고위험음주율의 증가추이는 지속될 것으로 예상되므로 이에 대비 . 한 정책대안 모색이 필요할 것이다.

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