OECD국가의 ‘청년 니트(NEET)’ 유입에 대한 영향요인 연구 = 동적패널모형을 활용한 실증분석(2005년∼2013년)

국문 초록 (Abstract)

최근 OECD 국가에서 청년 니트 문제가 심화되고 있다. 이에 본 연구는 2005년부터 2013년까지 OECD국가를 대상으로 20세부터 29세의 ‘청년 니트’ 유입에 대한 영향요인을 실증분석하였다. 구체적으로 실증모형은 기존연구의 문헌분석을 통해 경제활동인구, 경제성장률, 장기실업률, 고졸과 대졸의 임금격차, 적극적 노동시장정책(재정지원, 법적지원)을 고려하여 동적패널분석을 실시하였다. 특히, 경제발전 수준은 청년 니트 유입과 관련성이 높기 때문에 경제발전의 양적 지표인 ‘1인당 GDP’뿐만 아니라 질적 지표인 ‘총요소생산성(TFP)’도 포함하였다. 분석결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 학력에 따른 임금격차는 청년 니트 유입을 높이는 유의미한 영향요인이었다. 둘째, 장기실업률이 높아지면 청년 니트의 유입도 높아졌고, 경제성장률이 높아지면 청년 니트의 유입은 낮아졌다. 셋째, 적극적 노동시장정책은 재정지원, 법적지원 모두 청년 니트의 유입을 낮추는 효과가 있었고, 총요소생산성의 증가에도 동일한 효과가 나타났다. 나아가 총요소생산성의 구성요인을 R&D역량, 교육역량, 제도특성으로 세분화하여 청년 니트의 유입에 미치는 효과를 추정하였다. 교육역량 중에서 PISA성취도는 청년 니트의 유입과 관련이 없었으며, 평균 교육년수가 높아지면 오히려 청년 니트의 유입이 높아졌다. 반면 경쟁력 있는 인재를 양성하는 교육제도(educational system)와 대학교육(university education)은 연령대가 높은 청년 니트의 유입을 낮추는 효과가 있었다. 이러한 결과는 평균 교육년수와 PISA 성취도가 높으면서, OECD 국가 중에서 청년 니트의 규모도 큰 우리나라에게 시사점을 준다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The present study analyzed the factors influencing the influx of the 20-29 year old NEET population, employing the Dynamic Panel Model based on OECD data from the year 2005 to 2013. As for the economic growth rate, GDP per capita and Total Factor Productivity were also included, and these were closely linked to the influx of NEETs. Firstly, wage disparity based on academic achievement was a significant factor of influence in raising the NEET population. If the long-term unemployment rate rose, the influx of NEETs increased, when it decreased, the economic growth rate dropped. NEETs can be affected by economic conditions. On the other hand, an active labor market policy(ALMP) had an lowering effect on the influx of NEETs, as did TFP. Considering this, the present study sub-divided TFP components into three factors; R&D, educational competencies, and institutional characteristics to estimate their specific influences on the influx of NEETs. As for the educational competencies, PISA had no correlation with NEETs whereas the increase in average schooling accompanied an increase in the NEET population. Meanwhile, university education and an educational system that produces competitive human resources had an lowering effect on the inflow of the older NEET population.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 초록
• Ⅰ. 서론
• Ⅱ. 이론적 배경
• Ⅲ. 연구설계와 분석모형
• Ⅳ. OECD국가의 청년 니트 유입의 영향요인에 대한 동적패널분석
• Ⅴ. 결론
• 참고문헌
• ABSTRACT

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