주택가격의 국제적 공조성에 관한 연구 = A Study on the Global Synchronization of Housing Prices

국문 초록 (Abstract)

국제금융위기 이후 주택가격의 국제적 공조성이 증가하였는지에 관한 실증분석을 하였다. 호주, 일본, 한국, 영국 및 미국 등 4개 대륙 5개 국가를 대상으로 공적분 검정을 이용하여 분석한 결과 국제적 공조성의 정도는 기간에 따라 차이가 나타나는 것으로 나타났다. 1995 1/4 - 2011 4/4를 표본기간으로 하는 경우 특히 국제금융위기 이후 주택가격의 국제적 공조성이 크게 증가한 것으로 나타났다. 한편 외생성 검정의 결과 우리나라는 공통추세를 만드는 국가가 아님을 알았다. 이러한 사실들은 우리나라 주택가격 예측 상 어려움의 발생, 주택정책 수립방향의 재조정 필요성 등에 관한 시사점을 갖는다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Whether the tendency of global synchronization has been increased after the global financial crisis, GFC, has been empirically analyzed. By using 1995 – 2011 quarterly housing price data of Australia, Japan, Korea, United Kingdom and United States, cointegration test has been proceeded. It has been found that the tendency of global synchronization has been significantly increased especially after the GFC. Also, according to the result of exogeneity test, Korea has been found not to generate the common trend. These facts imply that the forecasting of Korean housing price and the construction of effective housing policies will become more difficult.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 서론
• Ⅱ. 문헌 고찰
• Ⅲ. 자산가격들 사이의 관계
• Ⅳ. 주택가격의 국제적 공조성 검정
• Ⅴ. 요약 및 결론
• 참고문헌
• 국문요약

참고문헌 (Reference)

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