러시아의 대 중국 가스 정책: 기회와 도전 = Russia’s Gas Policy toward China: Opportunities and Challenges

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Russia had made numerous efforts to export its gas to China for a long time. These efforts bore partial fruit at the Russia-China summit in May 2004 when the Russian state gas company Gazprom and the Chinese state energy company CNPC signed a gas agreement. After this agreement, Russia has sought to further expand its gas exports to China. This paper attempts to analyze what opportunities and challenges does this policy present. Russia seeks to implement three projects – The Power of Siberia (PoS) pipeline, PoS-2 pipeline, and the third gas pipeline. The realization of these projects obviously will provide Russia with various opportunities such as increasing Russia’s bargaining power against the European countries in gas negotiations and strengthening Russia’s relationship with China. However, Russia is facing three critical challenges in implementing the three projects – low oil prices, China’s slowing demand for gas, and increasing competition in the Asian gas market. Based on the analysis of these challenges, this paper argues that gas trade between Russia and China is not likely to significantly increase in the near future.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

러시아는 오랜 동안 중국으로 가스를 수출하기 위해 다양한 노력을 기울여 왔다. 이러한 노력은 지난 2014년 5월 러·중 정상회담에서 러시아의 국영가스회사 가즈프롬과 중국의 국영에너지회사 CNPC가 가스거래에 관한 협정에 서명하며 부분적인 결실을 맺었다. 러시아는 이에 만족하지 않고 중국으로 가스수출을 더 확대하려 하고 있다. 본 논문은 이러한 러시아의 정책이 선사하는 기회와 도전을 분석하는 것이다. 러시아는 이 정책의 실현을 위해 Power of Siberia (PoS) 가스관, PoS-2 가스관 및 제3의 가스관 건설을 추진하고 있다. 이 프로젝트의 실현은 분명히 러시아에게 다양한 기회를 제공하고 있다. 일례로 러시아는 유럽과의 가스협상에서 협상력을 높일 수 있고 중국과의 관계를 강화할 수 있다. 하지만 러시아가 추진하는 프로젝트의 실현에는 저유가, 중국의 가스수요 둔화 및 아시아 가스시장에서의 경쟁 심화라는 세 가지 주요 도전이 도사리고 있다. 이러한 도전은 러시아가 중국으로 가스수출을 확대하기 위해 추진하는 프로젝트의 실현을 저해하고 있다. 본 논문은 이러한 문제의 분석을 통해 러시아와 중국의 가스거래가 가까운 미래에 급격하게 증가할 가능성이 낮다고 주장한다.

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