우크라이나 사태와 미중관계: 중국의 전략적 판단을 중심으로 = An Analysis of the Ukraine Crisis and U.S. - China Relations: With the Focus on China’s Strategic Consideration

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Under the Biden Administration, new Cold War discourses equal to ‘China bashing’ and strategic containment of China by the U.S. have intensified. Accordingly, China’s offensive rhetoric against the U.S. and the formation of its own camps confronting the country has been also fierce and active. In the middle of the escalating rivalry between the U.S. and China came the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, a key strategic partner of China vis-à-vis the U.S. Against this backdrop, it is easy to assume that China would be hardly hesitant to support Russia and consequently the bilateral relationship between the U.S. and China will sour greatly. However, this article argues that China will be quite cautious in helping Russia and its wartime policy toward the country and the U.S. will be also conservative in general. In strategic terms, though it is true that the last thing China wants is a Russian decline due to the war or ultimate failure of the war, it has to consider strategic losses, i.e., the backlash from each of the U.S. and Europe and the mutual consolidation of the two induced by its assistance of Russia. Economically, China’s dependence on the U.S. in trade is far bigger than its reliance on Russia. Notably, it still needs U.S. soybean and wheat for its ‘food security’ when it wants Russian fossil fuels including oil, natural gas, and coal. On top of that, it is not yet independent of U.S. advanced technological design, parts, and equipment. Politically, judging by surveys, it could be argued that the Chinese people are strongly pro-Russian at this moment and the leadership will heed and reflect their voices for its own legitimacy and power retention. However, the people’s policy preference for Russia is not so much moral support or weapon provision as negotiation to end the conflict. Overall, considering the above, the Ukraine crisis will not prompt China’s sharp change of its diplomatic course for Russia and thus for the U.S. either; in this sense, the contention that the crisis will accelerate a new Cold War or consolidation of the blocs supporting the U.S. or China lacks grounds.

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