중 장기 유아교육 수요예측 ( 1 ) : 원아수 예측 = Mid and Long Term Predictions of the Number of Preschool Children

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In this study, the number of preschool children for the next 10 years is predicted using a time series regression model. The 3-6 year old population, the woman labor population, the average household number, and an individual disposable income serve as independent variables. Predictive values, derived from an exponential smoothing mode, were used to determine the predictive values of the woman labor population, the average household composition, and individual disposable income, and predictions made by the National Statistical Office were used for the predictive value of the 3-6 year old population. The time series regression model using only individual disposable income as an independent variable best determines the number of preschool children, yielding the prediction that the number of preschool children in 2009 will be 656, 361. This figure is 23% more than the number of preschool children in 1999, 534, 166. The proportion of children who will partake in preschool education is 25%, 6% higher than that of 1999.