한국은 중국,일본과 잠재교역규모를 달성하고 있는가? = Did Korea Exhaust the Trade Potential with China and Japan?

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper attempts to investigate trade potential for Korea-China and Korea-Japan using modified gravity models. To avoid biased results stemming from simple OLS estimation, especially heteroskedasticity problem, various estimation techniques were used, i.e., fixed effect, random effect, between effect, Hausman-Taylor, Hausman-Taylor AR(1) and Random Effects GLS with Common AR(1). Considering the magnitude of our regression coefficients, the latter seems to be the most relevant estimation method to our model. Consequently, we used Random Effects GLS with Common AR(1) to measure more precisely Korea-China, and Korea-Japan trade potentials. The estimated coefficients from the Random Effects GLS with Common AR(1) were then employed to predict those bilateral trade potentials in between 2001 and 2006. The results show that Korea and China had traded more than the predicted potential trade levels from 2001 to 2006. The amount above the predicted trade potential between Korea and China increased every year from 8.6 bn. dollars in 2001 to 34bn. in 2006. On the other hand, Korea and Japan had traded less than the predicted potential trade level during the same period implying that Korea-Japan trade potential has not been exhausted yet. For example, in 2006, the amount of unexhausted trade potential between the two reached 24bn. dollars suggesting some policy implications to enhance Korea-Japan economic relationship.

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