맬서스주의 대 풍요주의: 새로운 문제규명 및 접근법 모색 = Malthusianism vs. Cornucopianism: Alternative Approach to Problem Identification

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this study is to seek a new approach in addressing the issues of population sustainability by looking at factors that were not previously considered in the traditional “Malthusian Trap” argument. Going beyond what Malthusians or New Malthusians have argued, this study expands the scope of explanatory variables to the supply of energy, mineral, water and atmosphere from food. Considering consumption, aspects in population quality such as the size of the middle class, urbanization, and age are also given more focus. In doing so, this study gives more attention to the spread of population growth, especially on its size in the era of rapid economic development. It also emphasizes the fact that different characteristics of natural resources influence their sustainability as well as the way people compete to secure them. This study finds that the supply of economic goods such as food and energy is expected to be continuously unstable but not to the extent that there will be a critical crisis. If there is no innovation, however, the supply of free goods such as air and water will not be sustainable. Ultimately, it would be tough to reverse the current trend unless societies consider paths toward environmentally friendly urbanization.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

이 글은 인간과 자연 간의 (불)균형 및 지속(불)가능성에 관한 기존 논의의 비판적 평가와 문제규명 접근법을 모색하는 시론적 성격의 학제간 연구이다. 이 연구의 분석틀은 경제성장 및 환경보전과 인구변동 간의 긴장관계에 초점이 맞추어져 있다. 이 연구는 분석 대상인 자연자원을 경제재(economic good)와 자유재(free good)로 구분하고, 전자는 지속가능성이 상대적으로 높은 반면 후자는 지속가능성이 매우 낮을 것으로 차별화한다. 경제재는 기술발전과 시장기제에 의해 지속가능성이 높겠지만, 후자는 기술발전 및 시장기제의 한계와 국가능력의 축소, 그리고 국가간 집합행동의 딜레마로 해결 가능성이 매우 낮다는 점을 이 연구는 밝히고 있다. 이 연구는 인구 대 자연자원의 불균형을 다룬다는 점에서 19세기 맬서스와 유사점을 갖지만, 분석 시각 측면에서 다음과 같은 차이를 가지고 접근한다. 첫째, 이 연구는 총인구수의 절대량보다 인구의 “질”에 주목한다. 동시에 산업화 출발 시기의 인구 크기를 중요한 변수로 다룬다. 둘째, 기존 연구를 바탕으로 설명대상의 범위를 식량, 에너지, 광물자원은 물론이고 물, 공기와 같은 생태계까지 포괄한다. 동시에 이 연구는 분석 대상인 자원의 종류에 따라 지속가능성 여부 및 자원을 두고 벌어지는 경쟁의 양상이 다를 수 있다는 점을 염두에 두고, 경제재와 자유재로 구분해 접근한다. 셋째, 이 연구는 경제성장과 확산의 속도 차이에 주목한다.

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