미래 국방전략기술 예측 네트워크 분석: 국방기술기획서를 중심으로 = Network Analysis of Future Defense Strategic Technologies: Focusing on the Defense Technology Planning Report

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구는 국방기술기획서를 분석하여 국방전략기술 포트폴리오의 구조적 특성과 기술 간 연계 가능성을 규명하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 사업 단위 기술･과제 정보를 대상으로 텍스트 마이닝과 네트워크 분석을 적용하여 기술 중요도와 구조적 관계를 도출하였다. 분석 결과, 인공지능, 센서융합 등은 핵심 허브 기술로 나타났으며, 기술 발전이 단일 영역 중심에서 융합 중심으로 전환되고 있음을 확인하였다. 본 연구는 국방기술기획의 정책적 활용 가능성을 제시한다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study analyzes the structural characteristics of defense strategic technologies using the Defense Technology Planning Report, with the aim of deriving policy-relevant implications for future defense R&D planning. Project titles and technology keywords are analyzed through text mining techniques, applying TF–IDF weighting and cosine-based similarity measures combined with hierarchical clustering to identify technological relatedness. The analysis shows that artificial intelligence, sensor fusion, hypersonic systems, and high-energy weapons function as core hub technologies that connect multiple technology domains within the defense technology portfolio. In addition, link prediction suggests potential future technology linkages implied in current planning documents, such as the convergence of quantum cryptography communication with low-orbit satellite navigation and the integration of sensor fusion with space-based surveillance and reconnaissance systems. These findings indicate a strategic shift in defense technology planning from single-domain advancement toward cross-domain integration. This study highlights the usefulness of quantitative analysis of defense planning documents for supporting evidence-based defense technology policy and suggests the need for expanded datasets in future research.