지역경기변동의 요인분석 = 전북지역의 경우

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In recent decades, there have been increasing researches on the regional economic fluctuations after it was found that the regional economy does not always move in the same direction as the national economy. This paper summarizes the long-run SVAR methodology, and applies it to the measurement of relative contribution of each structural shock to the fluctuation of Jeonbuk GRDP. The empirical study illustrates the usefulness of SVAR method in the analysis of regional economic fluctuations suggesting the main findings as follows: (1) Jeonbuk`s response to the regional shock immediately rises to the highest point during the year when it occurs, while that to the other shocks reaches there one or two years after the shock. The Jeonbuk GRDP shows more sensitive response to all the shocks than the GDP, which indicates that the Jeonbuk economy tends to be more unstable than the national economy. (2) The aggregate supply shock has two times as large effect on the growth of Jeonbuk GRDP as on the GDP growth. This implies that the positive aggregate shock, if it extends over a long period of time, would lead to narrowing the income gap between Jeonbuk and other developed regions. (3) The variance decomposition approach, which examines how much each of the structural shocks is quantitatively affecting the Jeonbuk GRDP, shows that the regional shock accounts for 64 percent of the variance of the Jeonbuk CROP at the end of two years, and 60 percent at the end of ten vears. The aggregate supply shock explains about 30 percent of the Jeonbuk GRDP variation in the long-run.