勞動力需給의 要因分析과 展望 = An Empirical Analysis of The Determinants and Long-term Projections for the Demand and Supply of Labor force

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this paper is two-fold. One is to investigate the determinants of the demand supply of labor, and another is to project long-term demand and supply of labor. The paper consists of three parts. In the first part, theoretical models and important hypotheses are discussed: for the case of a labor supply model, issues regarding discouraged worker model, permanent wage hypothesis, and relative wage hypothesis are examined and for the case of a demand model, issues regarding estimating an employment demand equation within the framework of an inverted short-run production function are inspected. Particularly, a theoretical justification for introducing a demographic cohort variable in a labor supply equation is also investigated.
In the second part, empirical results of the estimated supply and demand equations are analyzed. Supply equations are specified differently between primary and secondary labor force. That is, for the case of primary labor force groups including males aged 25 and over, attempts are made to explain the variations in participation behavior within the framework of a neo-classical economics oriented permanent wage hypothesis. On the other hand, for the case of females and young male labor force, variations in participation rates are explained in terms of a relative wage hypothesis. In other words, the participation behavior of primary labor force is related to short-rum business fluctuations, while that of secondary labor force is associated with intermediate swings of business cycles and demographic changes in the age structure of population.
Some major findings are summarized as follows.
(1) For the case of males aged 14~19 and 20~24 groups and females aged 14~19, the effect of schhool enrollment rate is dominant and thus it plays a key role in explaining the recent declining trend of participation rates of these groups.
(2) Except for females aged 20~24, a demographic cohort variable, which captures the impact of changes in the age structure on participation behavior, turns out to show positive and significant coefficients for secondary labor force groups.
(3) A cyclical variable produce significant coefficients for prime-age males and females reflecting that as compared to other groups the labor supply behavior of these groups is more closely related to short-run cyclical variations.
(4) The wage variable, which represents a labor-leisure trade-off turns out to yield significant coefficients only for older age groups (60 and over) for both males and females. This result reveals that unlike the experiences of other higer-income nations, the participation decision of the labor force of our nation is not highly sensitive with respect to wage changes.
(5) The estimated result of the employment demand equation displays that given that the level of GNP remains constant the ability of the economy to absorb labor force has been declining; that is, the elasticity of GNP with respect to labor absorption decreases over time.
In the third part, the results of long-term projections (for the period of 1986 and 1995) for age-sex specific participation rates are discussed. The participation rate of total males is anticipated to increase slightly, which is contrary to the recent trend of declining participation rates of this group. For the groups aged 25 and below, the participation rates are forecast to decline although the magnitude of decrease is likely to shrink. On the other hand, the participation rate of prime-age males (25 to 59 years old) is predicted to increase slightly during 1985 and 1990. For the case of females, except for 20~24 and 25~34 age groups, the participation rates are projected to decrease: the participation rates of 25~34 age group is likely to remain at its current level, while the participation rate of 20~24 age group is expected to increase considerably in the future (specifically, from 55% in 1985 to 61% in 1990 and to 69% in 1995).
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목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 序論
• Ⅱ. 理論的 考察
• Ⅲ. 實證分析 論議
• Ⅳ. 勞動力 需給展望
• Ⅴ. 結語
• 參考文獻
• (Abstract)