대북 억제 신호와 위기 안정의 딜레마: ‘지도부 제거’ 선언정책을 중심으로 = Deterrence Signaling toward North Korea and the Dilemma of Crisis Stability: Focusing on the Declaratory Policy of Leadership Decapitation

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study examines the efficacy of ‘regime termination’ and ‘leadership decapitation’ messaging transmitted by the ROK-U.S. alliance in the context of the deterrence-crisis stability dilemma amid North Korea's advancing nuclear threat capabilities. Declaratory policies pertaining to regime termination and leadership decapitation in response to North Korean nuclear employment can exert substantial deterrent effects, as they directly threaten what Pyongyang values most: regime preservation and leadership survival. However, now that North Korea's nuclear capabilities have matured into operationally deployable threats, it must be recognized that such policies may inadvertently induce North Korean miscalculation and create conditions that undermine crisis stability on the Korean Peninsula. Consequently, the ROK-U.S. alliance must undertake efforts to refine and supplement existing policies concerning regime termination and leadership decapitation with greater sophistication, integrating policy prudence, operational meticulousness, and institutionalized crisis management capabilities to simultaneously secure both deterrence effectiveness and strategic stability.