인구감소에 따른 지방재정 전망 시뮬레이션 분석: 전북특별자치도 익산시를 중심으로 = Fiscal Implications of Regional Population Decline: A System Dynamics Analysis of Jeonbuk Special Self-Governing Province

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study analyzes the potential effects of population decline and the weakening of the local tax base on local public finance through a scenario-comparison approach, using Iksan City in Jeonbuk State as a case study. Based on the 2024 fiscal settlement data, a long-term fiscal simulation was conducted to examine changes in own-source revenue and fiscal self-reliance through 2040 by applying different local tax revenue decline rates under each scenario. The results show that, under the baseline scenario assuming an average annual decline of 2.5% in local tax revenue, own-source revenue decreases to KRW 185.7 billion and the fiscal self-reliance ratio falls from 14.23% to 10.74%. Under the youth settlement policy scenario, own-source revenue reaches KRW 219.1 billion and the fiscal self-reliance ratio stands at 12.67%, showing a smaller decline than in the baseline scenario. Under the flexible tax rate scenario, own-source revenue is KRW 207.1 billion and the fiscal self-reliance ratio is 11.98%, indicating a relatively more moderate downward path. In contrast, under the accelerated aging scenario, own-source revenue declines to KRW 167.4 billion and the fiscal self-reliance ratio drops to 9.68%, the lowest among the scenarios. These findings suggest that, under the assumptions of this study, differences in the degree of weakening of the local tax base can be reflected in the magnitude of changes in own-source revenue and fiscal self-reliance. This study is meaningful in that it presents the possible fiscal changes facing population-declining regions from a long-term scenario perspective and provides basic reference material for reviewing fiscal policy in non-capital local governments with similar structural conditions.