유라시아 국가의 권위주의와 경제발전: 민주화와 경제성장 간의 관계를 중심으로 = Authoritarianism and Economic Development in Eurasian Countries: Focused on the Relations between Democracy and Growth

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this study, covering 12 Eurasian countries, is to analyze the corelation between economic growth and several factors regarded as influencing to the growth since the start of transition, especially focused on the relation between democracy and economic growth. In this paper, Eurasian countries are to be classified as several groups according to their initial conditions, transition strategies, degrees of progress in economic reform, and the levels of democratization. And for analytical purposes, it is necessary to subdivide the period from 1991 to 2008 into four subperiods: 1991–1995, 1996–2000, 2001–2005, and 2006–2008.
Assessing the relation between economic growth and the level of democracy in Eurasian countries, we can find obviously distinguishing pictures along with each level of democracy. In case of Eurasian region, Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova, assessed to be mostly progressed in democracy, belong to a group of showing lowest level of growth; Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Uzbekistan, judged to be mostly delayed in democracy, included in a group of representing highest growth countries. Notwithstanding it would be limited in Eurasian region, these can suggest as a evidence of indicating trade-offs between democracy and economic growth in the period of transition and development. These findings give rise to a difficult problem whether to accept the sacrifice of democracy for the purpose of economic growth, and how much and how long. Furthermore, this trade-off can be a cruel dilemma in transition economies, given the proposition that democracy in itself is one of the main objects in transition and development.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 논문은 유라시아 지역의 12개 국가를 분석대상으로 체제전환에 착수한 이래 각국의 경제성장과 그에 영향을 미친 것으로 간주되는 제반 요소 간의 상관관계를 분석하는 것을 주된 목적으로 하며, 특히 민주화와 경제성장 간의 관계에 초점을 맞춘다. 본 논문에서는 유라시아 국가들을 ‘초기조건’, ‘체제전환전략의 선택’, ‘개혁정책의 진척도’, 그리고 ‘민주화 수준’을 기준으로 구분하고, 기간별로는 1991년에서 2008년에 이르는 시기를 ‘1991-1995년’, ‘1996-2000년’, ‘2001-2005년’, ‘2006-2008년’이라는 네 개의 소시기로 구분하여 검토한다.
유라시아 국가들의 경제성장을 민주화 수준에 차이에 따라 평가해 보면, 각 수준에 따라 명확하게 구별되는 그림이 나타난다. 유라시아 지역의 경우, 민주주의가 가장 진전된 것으로 평가되는 우크라이나와 그루지야 및 몰도바가 1991-2008년을 통틀어 가장 낮은 경제성장을 나타낸 국가군에 속하며, 민주주의 수준이 가장 낮은 것으로 평가된 카자흐스탄, 벨로루시, 우즈베키스탄이 가장 높은 경제성장을 보인 국가군으로 분류되기 때문이다. 이는 유라시아 지역에 한정된 것이지만, 체제전환 및 경제개발의 과정에서 경제성장과 민주주의가 상충관계(trade-off)에 있다는 것을 보여주는 증거로 제시될 수 있다. 민주주의 자체가 체제전환의 중요한 최종목표 중 하나라고 할 때 이러한 상충관계는 잔인한 딜레마가 될 수 있다.

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