脫分斷體制로의 移行을 위한 南北韓 經濟交流協力 = Economic Exchange and Cooperation for the Post-Division System of the Korean Peninsula

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The worsening economic plight of North Korea has been widely documented. It has been facing food shortage at least since the early 1990s and is well into a famine of unknown magnitude. Despite the desperate situation internally, the government maintains the most militarized society on earth, with more than one million men under arms and devoting an estimated 25 percent of GDP devoted to military expenditures. Economic reforms could have enormous benefits in this highly distorted economy. It would also help manage tension reduction of the Korean Peninsula, because the country could generate a significant additional “peace dividend” by partially demobilizing its enormous military. In fact, the North Korean regime has initiated some modest reforms. In the meantime the most recent estimate of the costs of unification shows that there can be scenario in which the present discounted value of South Korean income is higher with unification than without it. It implies that although lower income groups in South Korea experience reduced incomes under this scenario, with redistribution of the gains, everyone can be made better off. However, under this scenario even after a decade of adjustment the level of North Korean per capita income would still be less than 40 percent of the South’s. Therefore, whether the degree of disparity would be politically sustainable in a unified Korea is an open question. Both South and North Koreas have strong incentives for the economic exchange and cooperation. For the past decade there has been a substantial increase in quantity that is limited at the level of private sector. The political and military issues hinder a further progress of economic cooperations, especially at the government’s level. The window of opportunity for North Korea to embrace reform is now greater than at any time in the past. The South Korean government needs to make more efforts to be effective for its policy approach to embrace the North Korean regime. The declaration under which South Korea will not merge North Korea is not enough to improve the relationship between them. The South Korean government needs to send some essential signals that acknowledge the North Korean regime. It will include the South Korean government’s supports that help normalize the relationships between North Korea and U.S.A. and between North Korea and Japan.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 移行期의 韓半島秩序 : 한반도질서 및 한반도 통일환경의 변화 Ⅱ. 대북정책의 평가와 향후과제 Ⅲ. 남북 경제교류협력: 의의와 평가, 그리고 향후과제 Ⅳ. 탈분단체제로의 이행과 새로운 상상력의 필요 Ⅴ. 맺음말: 脫分斷體制로의 이행을 위한 경제교류협력의 방향 제안 참고문헌 Abstract