RISS 학술연구정보서비스

검색
다국어 입력

http://chineseinput.net/에서 pinyin(병음)방식으로 중국어를 변환할 수 있습니다.

변환된 중국어를 복사하여 사용하시면 됩니다.

예시)
  • 中文 을 입력하시려면 zhongwen을 입력하시고 space를누르시면됩니다.
  • 北京 을 입력하시려면 beijing을 입력하시고 space를 누르시면 됩니다.
닫기
    인기검색어 순위 펼치기

    RISS 인기검색어

      KCI등재

      미국 대통령 예비선거에 적용한 시공간 의존성을 고려한 자기로지스틱 회귀모형 연구 = Autologistic models with an application to US presidential primaries considering spatial and temporal dependence

      한글로보기

      https://www.riss.kr/link?id=A105333514

      • 0

        상세조회
      • 0

        다운로드
      서지정보 열기
      • 내보내기
      • 내책장담기
      • 공유하기
      • 오류접수

      부가정보

      다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

      The US presidential primaries take place sequentially in different places with a time lag. However, they have not attracted as much attention in terms of modelling as the US presidential election has. This study applied several autologistic models to find the relation between the outcome of the primary election for a Democrat candidate with socioeconomic attributes in consideration of spatial and temporal dependence. According to the result applied to the 2016 election data at the county level, Hillary Clinton was supported by people in counties with high population rates of old age, Black, female and Hispanic. In addition, spatial dependence was observed, representing that people were likely to support the same candidate who was supported from neighboring counties. Positive auto-correlation was also observed in the time-series of the election outcome. Among several autologistic models of this study, the model specifying the effect of Super Tuesday had the best fit.
      번역하기

      The US presidential primaries take place sequentially in different places with a time lag. However, they have not attracted as much attention in terms of modelling as the US presidential election has. This study applied several autologistic models to ...

      The US presidential primaries take place sequentially in different places with a time lag. However, they have not attracted as much attention in terms of modelling as the US presidential election has. This study applied several autologistic models to find the relation between the outcome of the primary election for a Democrat candidate with socioeconomic attributes in consideration of spatial and temporal dependence. According to the result applied to the 2016 election data at the county level, Hillary Clinton was supported by people in counties with high population rates of old age, Black, female and Hispanic. In addition, spatial dependence was observed, representing that people were likely to support the same candidate who was supported from neighboring counties. Positive auto-correlation was also observed in the time-series of the election outcome. Among several autologistic models of this study, the model specifying the effect of Super Tuesday had the best fit.

      더보기

      참고문헌 (Reference)

      1 조성대, "미국 예비선거(Primary Election)에서 후보결정 요인에 관한 연구 : 2008년 민주당 사례" 한국정치학회 43 (43): 193-214, 2009

      2 Park, Jincheol, "공간적 상관관계가 존재하는 이산형 자료를 위한 일반화된 공간선형 모형 개관" 한국통계학회 28 (28): 353-360, 2015

      3 김동하, "공간가중회귀 모형을 이용한 서울시 에너지 소비에 따른 이산화탄소 배출 분석" 대한산업공학회 42 (42): 96-111, 2016

      4 Steger, W. P., "Who wins nominations and why? An updated forecast of the presidential primary vote" 60 : 91-99, 2007

      5 Austin, M. P., "Spatial prediction of species distribution: an interface between ecological theory and statistical modelling" 157 : 101-118, 2002

      6 Besag, J., "Spatial interaction and the statistical analysis of lattice systems (with discussion)" 36 : 192-236, 1974

      7 Cliff, A. D., "Spatial Processes: Models & Applications" Pion 1981

      8 Sherman, M., "On estimation in binary autologistic spatial models" 76 : 167-179, 2006

      9 Norrander, B., "Nomination choices: caucus and primary outcomes 1976–88" 37 : 343-364, 1993

      10 Besag, J. E., "Nearest-neighbour systems and the auto-logistic model for binary data" 34 : 75-83, 1972

      1 조성대, "미국 예비선거(Primary Election)에서 후보결정 요인에 관한 연구 : 2008년 민주당 사례" 한국정치학회 43 (43): 193-214, 2009

      2 Park, Jincheol, "공간적 상관관계가 존재하는 이산형 자료를 위한 일반화된 공간선형 모형 개관" 한국통계학회 28 (28): 353-360, 2015

      3 김동하, "공간가중회귀 모형을 이용한 서울시 에너지 소비에 따른 이산화탄소 배출 분석" 대한산업공학회 42 (42): 96-111, 2016

      4 Steger, W. P., "Who wins nominations and why? An updated forecast of the presidential primary vote" 60 : 91-99, 2007

      5 Austin, M. P., "Spatial prediction of species distribution: an interface between ecological theory and statistical modelling" 157 : 101-118, 2002

      6 Besag, J., "Spatial interaction and the statistical analysis of lattice systems (with discussion)" 36 : 192-236, 1974

      7 Cliff, A. D., "Spatial Processes: Models & Applications" Pion 1981

      8 Sherman, M., "On estimation in binary autologistic spatial models" 76 : 167-179, 2006

      9 Norrander, B., "Nomination choices: caucus and primary outcomes 1976–88" 37 : 343-364, 1993

      10 Besag, J. E., "Nearest-neighbour systems and the auto-logistic model for binary data" 34 : 75-83, 1972

      11 Wu, H., "Modelling the distribution of plant species using the autologistic regression model" 4 : 31-48, 1997

      12 Norpoth, H., "From primary to general election: a forecast of the presidential vote" 37 : 737-740, 2004

      13 Abramowitz, A. I., "Forecasting the 2008 presidential election with the time-for-change model" 41 : 691-695, 2008

      14 Lewis-Beck, M. S., "Forecasting presidential elections: when to change the model" 24 : 227-236, 2008

      15 Buckland, S. T., "Empirical models for the spatial distribution of wildlife" 30 : 478-495, 1993

      16 Lewis-Beck, M. S., "Election forecasting: principles and practice" 7 : 145-164, 2005

      17 Bartels, L. M., "Candidate choice and the dynamics of the presidential nominating process" 31 : 1-30, 1987

      18 He, F., "Autologistic regression model for the distribution of vegetation" 8 : 205-222, 2003

      19 Caragea, P. C., "Autologistic models with interpretable parameters" 14 : 281-300, 2009

      20 Gumpertz, M. L., "Autologistic model of spatial pattern of Phytophthora epidemic in bell pepper: effects of soil variables on disease presence" 2 : 131-156, 1997

      21 Augustin, N. H., "An autologistic model for the spatial distribution of wildlife" 33 : 339-347, 1996

      22 김동영, "2008년 미국 대통령선거: 최초의 흑인 후보에 대한 백인유권자 투표행태 분석" 국제지역연구센터 16 (16): 3-22, 2012

      23 김진웅, "2004년 미국 대통령 선거를 둘러싼 ‘44% 논쟁’" 한국미국사학회 38 : 219-248, 2013

      더보기

      분석정보

      View

      상세정보조회

      0

      Usage

      원문다운로드

      0

      대출신청

      0

      복사신청

      0

      EDDS신청

      0

      동일 주제 내 활용도 TOP

      더보기

      주제

      연도별 연구동향

      연도별 활용동향

      연관논문

      연구자 네트워크맵

      공동연구자 (7)

      유사연구자 (20) 활용도상위20명

      인용정보 인용지수 설명보기

      학술지 이력

      학술지 이력
      연월일 이력구분 이력상세 등재구분
      2027 평가예정 재인증평가 신청대상 (재인증)
      2021-01-01 평가 등재학술지 유지 (재인증) KCI등재
      2018-01-01 평가 등재학술지 유지 (등재유지) KCI등재
      2015-01-01 평가 등재학술지 유지 (등재유지) KCI등재
      2011-01-01 평가 등재학술지 유지 (등재유지) KCI등재
      2009-01-01 평가 등재학술지 유지 (등재유지) KCI등재
      2007-01-01 평가 등재학술지 유지 (등재유지) KCI등재
      2005-01-01 평가 등재학술지 유지 (등재유지) KCI등재
      2002-07-01 평가 등재학술지 선정 (등재후보2차) KCI등재
      2000-01-01 평가 등재후보학술지 선정 (신규평가) KCI등재후보
      더보기

      학술지 인용정보

      학술지 인용정보
      기준연도 WOS-KCI 통합IF(2년) KCIF(2년) KCIF(3년)
      2016 0.38 0.38 0.38
      KCIF(4년) KCIF(5년) 중심성지수(3년) 즉시성지수
      0.35 0.34 0.565 0.17
      더보기

      이 자료와 함께 이용한 RISS 자료

      나만을 위한 추천자료

      해외이동버튼