동구 체제전환국의 경제성과에 대한 문헌 연구 및 북한 관련 정책적 시사점 = A Survey on Economic Performance of the Eastern Bloc after Transition and Policy Implications for North Korea

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The economic transition of the Eastern Bloc has useful implications for Korea in preparing the transition of the North Korean economy and the economic integration of the Korean Peninsula. It is not only because of the heterogeneity among its members but also because of their pursuit of both economic transition and economic integration with the EU. In this sense, this study surveys the existing literature on their economic performance and draws some policy lessons. First, the transitional recession is mainly caused by supply factors, such as production chain failures, rather than by demand factors, such as fiscal tightening. Therefore, it is crucial to rebuild the production chains to support the market economy. Second, price stability plays a key part in a return to growth. When designing measures to stabilize prices, it should be considered that the causes of inflation are different from country to country, ranging from increased money supply and rising exchange rates to wage increases. Third, wage reductions can be considered to alleviate the initial decline in employment. Fourth, macroeconomic stability and economic institutions are the main determinants of growth at the beginning of the transition, while FDI and capital accumulation become important after about a decade into the transition. In light of this, it is critical to come up with ways to ensure sustainable growth. Meanwhile, further studies are needed on the relations between the pace of reform and economic growth and on the effects of economic and monetary integration, which remain as contentious issues.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

동구 체제전환국의 경험은 이들이 체제전환과 경제통합을 함께 추진했다는 점을 비롯해 여러 측면에서 북한의 체제전환과 남북통일에 많은 시사점을 줄 수 있다. 이러한 관점에서 본 연구는 동구 체제전환국의 경제성과에 대한 문헌 연구를 통해 몇 가지 시사점을 도출하였다. 첫째, 전환초기의 생산 감소는 생산구조 와해 등의 공급요인이 긴축정책 등의 수요요인보다 더 중요한 요인으로 분석되고 있다. 따라서 전환 초기에는 와해된 생산구조를 시장경제체제에 맞게 재정립하는 것이 중요할 것이다. 둘째, 성장세 전환을 위해서는 무엇보다 물가안정이 중요하다. 또한 물가 상승 원인이 국가별로 달랐던 점을 감안하여 북한도 통화량 증가, 환율 상승, 임금 상승 등 무엇이 주요 요인인가를 파악하고 그 대책을 마련할 필요가 있다. 셋째, 체제전환 이후 고용 감소에 따른 문제를 완화하기 위해서는 임금 하락을 용인하는 노동제도 구축을 고려할 필요가 있다. 임금이 경직적이면 실업이 늘고 사회보장비용이 커질 수 있기 때문이다. 넷째, 경제성장에 있어서 체제전환 초기에는 거시경제안정, 제도구축 등 체제전환 관련 요인이 중요하며 10년 정도가 경과한 이후에는 인적‧물적 투자, FDI 등 일반적인 성장요인이 중요한 것으로 분석되고 있다. 따라서 시기별로 초점을 달리하여 성장정책을 마련할 필요가 있다. 한편, 최근까지도 논쟁이 지속되고 있는 구조개혁 속도와 경제성장간의 관계, 경제 및 통화 통합 방안 등에 대해서는 추가적인 연구가 필요할 것이다.

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