독일 통일 이후 구동독지역 인구이동 및 인구변화와 한반도 통일에 주는 정책적 시사점 = East-West Migration and Demographic Change in the former GDR since the German Reunification and Lessons for Korea

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The aim of this study is to find out major contributing factors of East-West migration since the German reunification, its demographic and human-capitalistic characteristics, and especially to make an assessment on their economic consequences in the unified Germany, which could make useful policy proposals for Korea to cope with anticipated mass migration problems when unified. Since the German monetary, economic and social union took effect on July, 1990, net inflow of ca. 1.4 million immigrants to the west has happened. It amounts to 8.6% of the total population of East Germany in end 1989. It resulted from mass unemployment in East Germany and the income discrepancy between two Germanys since the reunification. The East-German younger age-cohorts mostly have moved out, especially the ratio of the younger age-cohorts of women to the total migrants has gradually increased. The consequences of demographic changes like the above are shrinking and aging of the population and decreasing labor forces, which might lead to lower productivity growth and could bring about lower economic growth. It could, in turn, accelerate economic hollowing of the region of the former GDR, which could also result in mass out-migration again, like a vicious circle. Some lessons from the East German migration and demographic experiences can be proposed for the unified Korea: In the early stage of unification, a relevant policy mix not only of macroeconomic stabilization policies but also of microeconomic and also of institutional policy measures should be taken to alleviate various uncertainty during the transition, far from constructing a sort of (physical or legislative) barriers in order for North Koreans not to come into South Korea. The policies should first of all contribute to competitiveness improvement of newly found or privatized enterprises, which is a sole key to steadily sustain employments of North Koreans.

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