생물종 분포모델에 미치는 기후·지형인자의 영향 분석

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study aims to analyze the effects of climatic and geographical factors based on the concept of ecological niche which is utilized extensively to predict the geographical distribution of biological species on the accuracy of species distribution models. The target species were non-native plants, which were found in subalpine zone of  Odaesan National Park. And two critical variables, including climate and topological variables, were used for investigating the species distribution model analyzed by the Maxent algorithm. The climate variables included temperature and precipitation, and altitude above the sea level, slope, topographic wetness index, and streamflow were used as geographical variables. the effects on the species distribution by those variables will be examined. The result of application of the species distribution model which Maximum entropy, Maxent, algorithm utilized extensively and verified in recent ecology field is applied with was assessed. How much the actual investigated area was included in  the predicted area distributed with the foreign plants was used for the examining process by the accuracy level with the  value of AUC of ROC (Area Under Curve of Receiver Operating Characteristic) and by comparing the possible maximum composition rate of non-native species depending on the models.). Rather than considering either of biological  climatic variables or geographical variables only, the accuracy level of the model applying both of them at the same time  turned out to be the highest among the 3 models even though there was no significant difference among the  models with the AUC value, 0.997 as well as the model showed the highest possible maximum composition rate, 99.5%, of the  nonnative species. In addition, with the setting of the potential distribution area of foreign plants with more than 50% of the possible composition rate of non-native species, the result of comparing the area showed the smallest distribution  area which was predicted with the sized of 4,174 km2 considering the climatic and geographical variables. This result indicated that the analysis result is rather stable not being sensitive to the types and numbers of variables which  explains the prediction result of the models and indirectly suggested that the distribution of non-native plants reflects the complexity of climatic and geographical features rather than environmental characteristics simply. In conclusion, the model that applied Maxent algorithm to various environmental variables may be very useful to predict the potential distribution area of various biological species in the National Park.