건축허가면적과 주택보급률의 구조적 변동 분석 : 부천시외 4개도시를 중심으로

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this study was to analyze the correlation between permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios and their fluctuation, and test a distribution model during 3 successive governments (Civilian, People's and Participatory Governments) in 5 cities including Bucheon in reference to the time series administrative data, and thereby, interpret the results of the analysis in association with the policies pursued by the successive governments to examine the structural fluctuation of permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios.For this purpose, the relevant literature was reviewed focusing on concept of the real estate policies, definition of houses, concept of the housing distribution ratio, housing policies, recent research trend and government's real estate policies centered about housing policies. In particular, types of government's real estate policies and major real estate policies were examined in relation with such yearly issues as real estate real name system, debt to income ratio, sales price ceiling system, extended period for limited resale, composite real estate tax, and so on.In order to analyze the fluctuation of permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios during 3 successive governments and examine the cycles of the time series data, the spectral analysis was performed, and in order to analyze the correlation between permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios, the tabulation was performed to describe the correlations statistically, and in order to explain about differences of fluctuation distribution of permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios among 3 governments, the goodness of fit test was conducted.In addition, in order to analyze the correlation between permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios, the relevant data were encoded using the spread sheet program, while spectral and correlation coefficient analyses were performed using the SPSS statistical program. Furthermore, the statistical distribution of data were calculated with the simulation analysis program ARENA operated for statistical goodness of fit test, correlation, tabulation and spectral analyses of each distribution. The results of this study can be summarized as follows;First, as a result of correlation coefficient analysis, it was found that in terms of correlation between permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios, the permitted building areas had increased from Civilian Government to People's Government and from People's Government to Participatory Government, while the housing distribution ratios had decreased. Namely, the correlation between two variables had been 'negative.' However, both permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios had increased from Civilian Government to Participatory Government or People's Government. Namely, the correlation between two variable were 'positive' during this period.Second, as a result of tabulation analysis, it was found that permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios increased first and then, decreased during Civilian Government, and the tabulation coefficient was largest at the time-lagged value of zero, which suggests that both permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios increased simultaneously. And during People's Government, permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios decreased, increased and then, decreased again. Also, the tabulation coefficient was largest at the time-lagged value of zero, which suggests that both variables fluctuated simultaneously. And during Participatory Government, permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios decreased first and then, increased, and the tabulation coefficient was largest at the time-lagged value of +2, which means that the permitted building areas preceded the housing distribution ratios by 2 cycles.Third, as a result of the spectral analysis, it was found that during Civilian Government, the permitted building areas increased and decreased, repeatedly, while the housing distribution ratios increased, decreased and then, increased again. And during People's Government, both permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios increased. During Participatory Government, both permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios decreased.Fourth, as a result of testing differences of the fluctuation distribution of permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios, it was found that the fluctuation distribution of both variables was uniform between Civilian and People's Governments, which means that both variable were stable. During Participatory Government when diverse real estate policies were designed and implemented, the fluctuation distribution of permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios showed a triangular distribution with minimum value, median and maximum value, which means that the fluctuation intervals were not uniform or stable.Based on the above result of analyses, it was perceived that during Civilian Government, permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios had been affected much by such policies as deregulation of land uses, deregulation of constructions in the capital area, stabilization of the housing markets, abolition of the housing construction quota system, housing sales price interlocked with construction cost, deregulation of the private rental houses, IMF bailout programs, and the like. During People's Government, permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios were influenced much by voluntary pricing of private apartment houses and some public apartment houses, loans for second installment payment for new houses, exemption of the capital gain tax for those households owning two or more houses, abolition of prohibited resale of the right to buy the apartment house, deregulation of the multi-household building standards, expansion of the financial support to ordinary people's houses, and so on.In case of Participatory Government, permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios were affected by such policies as sales price ceiling system, further opening of the sales cost to the public, designation of new town and balanced development zones, activation of rental housing projects, expansion of the public rental housing complexes, etc. As a consequence of comparing the permitted building areas by year during 3 successive governments, the areas were widest during People's Government, followed by Civilian Government and Participatory Government in their order. Namely, the construction markets were most brisk during People's Government. The construction markets much recessed by the IMF bailout program during Civilian Government would continue to be recessed until 1988, and thereafter, the permitted building areas would increase much every year owing to voluntary pricing of apartment houses and exemption of the capital gain tax for the households owning two or more houses. During Participatory Government, the housing markets would be recessed due to such regulations to check the housing speculations as sales price ceiling system.All in all, as a result of 'analyzing the structural fluctuation of permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios,' it was found that government's real estate policies had affected the housing markets. Therefore, when the government designs a real estate policy, it is deemed obliged to carefully design it in consideration of its influence over and its cyclic effects on changes of permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios.Lastly, it is hoped that this study which proved that government's policies would affect permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios will be referred to for future housing policies, and it is also hoped that this study will be followed up by future studies which will focus on such diverse variables deemed to be affected by government's real estate policies but not considered in this study as land price, housing price, business index and other various social factors.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구에서 3대 정부(문민, 국민, 참여)의 5개도시(부천시 외 4개도시)에 대한 건축허가면적과 주택보급률의 시계열 시정자료를 토대로 각 정부별 건축허가면적과 주택보급률 간에 상관관계 및 변동추이 분석, 분포모형검정을 하기위해 분석실시와 각 정부에서 추진하였던 정책과 연계하여 해석함으로써 구조적인 변동추이를 연구하였다.연구 수행을 위해 문헌 고찰에 있어서는 부동산정책의 개념, 주택의 정의 및 주택보급률의 개념등, 주택정책, 최근 연구사례 등에 대하여 고찰하였으며, 정부의 주택관련 정책에는 부동산정책 등이 있다. 그리고 부동산 정책의 유형과 주요 부동산정책에 대하여, 각 연도별 이슈가 되었던 정책인 부동산실명제, 총부채상환비율, 분양가 상한제, 전매제한기간 확대, 종합부동산세 등에 대하여 검토하였다.3대 정부별 건축허가면적과 주택보급률의 변화추이를 분석하고 시계열 자료가 어떠한 주기를 가지고 있는지에 대해 분석하고자 스펙트럴 분석을 실시하였으며, 건축허가면적과 주택보급률간의 상관관계분석을 위해 교차상관분석을 실시하여 통계적으로 상관관계를 설명하고, 각 정부별 건축허가면적과 주택보급률의 분포차이를 설명하기 위해 적합도 분포 검정을 실시하였다.그리고 건축허가면적과 주택보급률의 상관관계를 분석하기 위하여 자료 분석은 스프레드시트 프로그램을 이용해 코드화 시켰고, 통계프로그램인 SPSS를 이용하여 스펙트럴분석 및 상관관계 분석을 하였으며, 데이터의 통계적 분포의 산정 및 시뮬레이션 분석프로그램 ARENA를 이용하여 각 분포의 통계적 적합도 검정과 상관관계, 교차상관관계, 스펙트럴분석을 실시하여 다음과 같은 결론을 돌출하였다.첫 번째 상관관계 분석결과에 있어는 건축허가면적과 주택보급률의 경우 문민정부와 국민의 정부, 국민의 정부와 참여정부, 문민정부와 참여정부 간에는 건축허가면적은 증가하나 주택보급률이 감소하는 “음의 상관관계”가 나타났으며, 문민정부와 참여정부 ,문민정부와 국민의 정부 간은 건축허가면적과 주택보급률 모두가 증가하는 “양의 상관관계”로 분석 되었다.둘째, 교차상관관계 분석결과 문민정부의 경우 건축허가면적과 주택보급률이 증가(+)→감소(-)로 나타났으며, 시차수가 0인 곳의 교차상관계수가 가장 큰 것으로 분석되어 건축허가면적과 주택보급률이 동시에 변동한 것으로 분석되었다. 그리고 국민의 정부의 경우 건축허가면적과 주택보급률이 감소(-)→증가(+)→감소(-)로 나타났으며, 시차수가 0인 곳의 교차상관계수가 가장 큰 것으로 분석되어 건축허가면적과 주택보급률이 동시에 변동한 것으로 분석되었다. 그리고 참여정부의 경우 건축허가면적과 주택보급률이 감소(-)→증가(+)로 나타났으며, 시차수가 +2인 곳의 교차상관계수가 가장 큰 것으로 분석되어 건축허가면적이 주택보급률보다 2주기 선행하는 것으로 분석되었다.셋째, 스펙트럴 분석 결과, 문민정부의 경우 건축허가면적은 증가(+)→감소(-)를 반복하였으며, 주택보급률은 증가(+)→감소(-)→증가(+)하였다. 그리고 국민의 정부경우 건축허가면적과 주택보급률 모두 증가(+)의 추세가 있는 것으로 분석되었으며, 참여정부의 경우 건축허가면적과 주택보급률 모두 감소(-)의 추세가 있는 것으로 분석되었다.넷째, 건축허가면적과 주택보급률의 변동 분포 차이를 검정한 결과 문민정부와 국민의 정부 동안에 건축허가면적과 주택보급률의 변동 분포는 균일한 것으로 나타나 안정적이었다고 할 수 있으며, 다양한 부동산정책이 입안되었던 참여정부에는 건축허가면적과 주택보급률의 변동 분포가 최소값, 중앙값, 최대값을 가지는 삼각분포로 나타나 변동 폭이 균일하지 않았으며 불안정했던 것으로 해석되었다.따라서, 분석 결과를 토대로 문민정부의 경우 토지이용규제 완화, 수도권 건축규제완화, 주택시장 안정대책, 주택건설물량 할당제폐지, 주택분양가 원가 연동제, 민간건설임대주택에 관한 규제완화, IMF규제금융 정책 등이 건축허가면적과 주택보급률의 증?감에 영향을 미친 주요 정책이었다. 그리고 국민의 정부의 경우 민영 및 일부 공공아파트 분양가 자율화, 신규주택분양중도금 대출, 1가구 2주택이상에 대한 양도세 면제, 아파트 분양권 전매제한 폐지, 다가구 주택건축기준 완화, 서민주택자금 지원확대 추진 등이 건축허가면적과 주택보급률의 증?감에 영향을 미친 주요 정책이었다.참여정부의 경우 분양가 상한제 및 분양원가 공개 확대 추진, 뉴타운 균형발전촉진지구 지정 및 개발계획 발표, 임대주택사업 활성화 방안 마련, 국민임대단지 규모 확대 추진 등이 건축허가면적과 주택보급률의 증?감에 영향을 미친 주요 정책으로 해석되었다. 그리고 3대 정부에 있어 연도별 건축허가면적을 비교한 바, ①국민의 정부 ②문민정부 ③참여정부순으로 나타났으며, 국민의 정부 때 건축경기가 가장 활발했던 것으로 조사되었다. 문민정부는 IMF영향으로 건축경기가 크게 위축되어 국민의 정부 원년인 1998년까지 지속되었다가 분양가 자율화, 1가구2주택이상의 양도세 면제 등의 경기부양책으로 건축허가면적이 매년 크게 상승하였다. 또한 참여정부는 주택투기억제를 위한 분양가 상한제등의 규제정책으로 주택시장이 위축된 것으로 나타났다.본 논문인 “건축허가면적과 주택보급률의 구조적 변동분석”을 통하여 정부의 부동산 정책이 주택시장에 영향을 미친 것으로 분석되었다. 그러므로 정부에서 부동산 정책을 입안할 경우 건축허가면적과 주택보급률의 변동에 미치는 영향 및 주기를 고려하여 보다 신중한 정책 입안이 필요하다.끝으로 본 연구에서 국가의 정책이 건축허가면적과 주택보급률에 영향을 미치는 것으로 조사되어 향후 주택정책 입안 시 참고가 되었으면 하며, 본 논문에서 고려되지 않은 부분인 정부의 부동산 정책에 영향을 받을 수 있는 토지가격, 주택가격, 경기지수, 사회적 여러 요소들의 다양성에 대해 연구를 확대하였으면 한다.