지역의 지속거주의사 영향요인에 관한 연구: 서울시 사례를 중심으로 = Factors Affecting Residential Persistence: A Case Study of Seoul

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study empirically investigates the determinants of the intention for continuous residence in Seoul, a metropolis experiencing intensifying population decline and social mobility. The population decrease in Seoul is primarily driven by involuntary outward migration to the metropolitan area, triggering urban sprawl. This phenomenon leads to increased social costs, including longer commuting distances, and results in the weakening of grassroots governance and the loss of social capital. Employing a Hierarchical Linear Model (HLM), this study integrated “Seoul Survey” data with regional indicators from KOSIS across the 25 autonomous districts of Seoul (2020-2023).
The analysis yielded several key findings. First, at the individual level, longer residence duration and larger household size had significant positive (+) effects on the intention to stay, whereas economic burdens faced by married couples and regular workers exhibited negative (-) effects. Second, at the regional level, the number of childcare facilities emerged as a crucial anchor for residential persistence. Interestingly, while the ratio of dilapidated housing hindered the intention to stay, the vacant house ratio paradoxically showed a positive (+) effect, acting as a proxy for “wait-and-see demand” coupled with excellent urban infrastructure and expectations of asset value appreciation. Third, the time-series analysis revealed a dynamic reversal (cross effect): while upward mobility to better housing strongly drove the intention to stay during the asset boom in 2021, even residents in excellent housing experienced a decline in the intention to stay amid the high-interest-rate and macroeconomic contraction in 2023.
By demonstrating the mismatch between high residential intention and actual population outflow, this study confirms that the current migration is involuntary. Conclusively, minimizing the social costs of urban sprawl requires shifting population policy from ex-post diagnosis to proactive prevention. It necessitates spatial welfare policies, including targeted financial buffers against economic volatility and customized improvements in the public childcare environment, to ensure stable grassroots governance.