지방자치단체장의 지방재정운영노력이 재선에 미치는 효과: 2014년 지방선거를 중심으로 = An Analysis of the Effects of Local Fiscal Management of Heads of Local Governments on the Reelection in the 2014 Local Election

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this research was to find out the effects of local fiscal management efforts by heads of local governments on their reelection campaign on the 2014 Local Elections, through a logistic regression. This research analyzed local fiscal management through two main factors of fiscal health and fiscal efficiency, in which fiscal health was measured by debt-to-budget ratio and consolidated local government balance ratio, and fiscal efficiency was measured by the ratio of event operation cost, the ratio of transfer expenditure to private sector, the ratio of task-force operations cost, the ratio of labor cost, and the ratio of local council operations cost. Local fiscal management efforts were measured by the changes (or the rates of change) among these indicators from 2009 to 2012.
The results showed that most indicators did not have a significant effect on the reelection of heads of local government. This results indicate that efforts to improve the local fiscal management do not affect the outcome ot the reelection of chief of local government.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구의 목적은 지난 2014년 6월 지방선거에 재출마한 지방자치단체장들을 대상으로 임기동안의 지방재정운영노력이 그들의 재선에 어떠한 영향을 미쳤는지를 로지스틱회귀분석모형을 활용하여 분석하는 것이다. 본 연구에서는 지방재정운영을 재정건전성과 재정효율성의 측면에서 살펴보았으며, 재정건전성은 예산대비채무비율과 통합재정수지비율로, 재정효율성은 행사축제경비비율, 민간이전경비비율, 업무추진비비율, 인건비비율, 지방의회경비비율로 측정하였다. 지방재정운영노력도는 2009년과 2012년 이러한 지표값들의 변화(혹은 변화율)로 측정하였다.
분석결과 모든 변수들은 지방자치단체장의 재선에 영향을 미치지 못하는 것으로 분석되었다. 단 지역과 정당의 효과를 통제하지 않는 겻우 업무추진비비율의 절감노력이 어느 정도 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 분석결과는 지방재정운영의 개선노력이 지방자치단체장의 재선에 거의 영향을 미치지 못하고 있다는 것을 의미한다고 하겠다.

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