몽골의 對北政策 : 社會主義 兄弟國家에서配慮外交 對象으로의 轉換過程을 中心으로

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The dissertation aims first to analyze Mongolia’s existing foreign policy toward North Korea; and then to propose recommendations on the choice of the pattern of Mongolia’s North Korea policy in the future against the backdrop of its past tradition.
To reach this objective the dissertation introduces the list of external and internal factors influencing the foreign policy. Accordingly, Mongolia’s foreign policy toward North Korea has transformed from traditional amicable relations through the period of stagnation into a renaissance; the total history of bilateral relations can be divided into five distinct periods from the standpoint of Mongolia’s North Korea policy. The period between 1987 and 1989, following the principles of socialist internationalism, had left Mongolia with no other choice than developing friendly relations with North Korea. The policy of strengthening bilateral Mongolia-North Korea ties was necessitated by unstable international and regional environment and the demand for stability in Northeast Asia. In the early 1990s, however, positive developments in international security environment stemming from the demise of USSR-led global socialist system and the normalization of Russo-Chinese relations served as favorable external factors strongly influencing the fundamental principles of Mongolia’s foreign policy. Parallel to this external development, two domestic factors of diametrically opposite nature also played their role in fundamentally transforming Mongolia’s foreign policy. One was a negative development ? the economic crisis as a consequence of abrupt termination of Soviet economic assistance. The other was the systemic transition from the Communist regime to democracy. In order to facilitate the strengthening of its new political system and overcome the economic crisis, Mongolia faced the necessity to develop a policy toward economically advanced nations in the East and the West. This, in turn, influenced Mongolia’s policy toward North Korea and became the reason behind the estrangement between Mongolia and North Korea. This period lasted from 1990 until 1994. The following period, between 1995 and first half of 1999, featured the stagnation of bilateral Mongolia-North Korea ties. Mongolia’s "Third Neighbor Policy"based on post-ideology principles served the goal of achieving concrete economic dividends by fostering cooperation with South Korea and Western nations; accordingly, this line could not have served well the relations with countries like North Korea offering no pragmatic economic solutions but solely reflecting the past ideological affinity. Thus Mongolia’s North Korea policy has subsequently abruptly entered the phase of stagnation, culminating in the closure of North Korea’s embassy in Ulaanbaatar in 1999.
From the late 1999 to 2004 the Government of Mongolia sought to restore its relations with North Korea. This change of attitude from stagnation to the pursuit of restoration was a result of new internal environment - namely, domestic factors as the new policy vision of the Government of Mongolia to upgrade the country’s foreign policy credibility and politico-economic conditions necessitating seeking new horizons for economic development. On the other hand, the objective of linking North Korea to the world from the standpoint of a neutral country, and more specifically, the economic goals of acquiring access to sea ports for exporting Mongolia’s mineral resources were seen as real-world political and economic gains from restoring the bilateral relations. These objectives served as strong intensives behind the change in North Korea policy. Seeking the new opportunities for development, Mongolia hoped that North Korea, an estranged but erstwhile friend, as a potential aid in forging the nascent multilateral structure. To launch the mechanism of multilateral political cooperation Mongolia could play certain internationalist role, and this role could elevate Mongolia’s international reputation. Nevertheless, this potential role of Mongolia has no direct connection to great power interests in Northeast Asia; moreover, in the case of deepening of territorial disputes between regional countries, or in the case of any event prompting the loss of mutual confidence, this role will be surpassed by negative external factors and thus cannot be fully realized.
Between 2005 and 2012 Mongolia sought the strategy of engaging North Korea through bilateral relations. This engagement policy was strongly driven by domestic factors of mainly economic interests ? Mongolia sought to gain economic benefit by using North Korea’s labor force and to acquire an access to sea port in North Korea to transport its mineral resources to global market. Against this backdrop, Mongolia utilized the diplomacy tools of persuasion or regulation whenever the situation in Northeast Asia deteriorated as a result of North Korea’s nuclear program or its provocations.
In recent years, Mongolia has been conducting the policy of soft engaging North Korea, based on its declared principle of non-accepting any attempt at isolating North Korea. The Mongolian interest here plays the role of a stabilizer, which can be interpreted as following: On the outset, this policy stems from the premises that any destabilization or deterioration of security environment in the region resulting from North Korean actions is counter-productive to Mongolia’s own developmental interests. Therefore, whenever the conditions apply, Mongolia must seek stability in the region by playing the role of regulator from the standpoint of a neutral country. In addition, contribution to peace and security in the region will advance Mongolia’s international stature and reputation. These are the reasons behind strengthening Mongolia-North Korea bilateral relations.
The dissertation proposes the following as recommendations for Mongolia’s contemporary policy toward North Korea. First, there is no alternative policy that is more advanced than the current one. Second, further activation of Mongolia’s policy toward North Korea will require a greater cost. In other words, if Mongolia elevates its relations with North Korea at the expense of its ties to "third neighbors," including South Korea, this will entail much more negative outcomes and damage Mongolia-South Korea relations. Therefore, contemplating any addition or alteration to Mongolia’s policy toward North Korea will require seeking a path that will maintain an equal advance in Mongolia’s relations with both Koreas, simultaneously with North Korea and its "third neighbors."

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 제1장 서론 1
• 1.1. 연구의 배경 1
• 1.2. 연구의 질문 2
• 1.3. 연구의 목적 3
• 1.4. 분석의 틀 3
• 1.5. 방법론 3
• 1.6. 연구의 새로운 점과 가치 4
• 1.7. 논문의 구조 6
• 제2장 외교 정책 변화에 대한 분석 8
• 2.1. 개요. 8
• 2.2. 외교 정책의 변화 8
• 2.3. 양소국의 외교 9
• 2.4. 외교 정책 변화에 영향을 미치는 요인 11
• 2.4.1. 외교 정책에 영향을 미치는 외부 환경의 요인 11
• 2.4.2. 외교 정책에 영향을 미치는 내부 환경의 요인 13
• 제3장 체제전환기 전의 몽골과 북한의 연대와 협력 (1987-1989) 16
• 3.1. 개요 16
• 3.2. 외부 환경의 요인 16
• 3.2.1. 국제 환경의 요인 16
• 3.2.2. 지역 환경의 요인 18
• 3.3. 내부 환경의 요인 19
• 3.4. 결론 20
• 제4장 사회주의권의 붕괴, 그리고 몽골과 북한의 연대의 이완 (1990년부터 1994년까지) 22
• 4.1 개요 22
• 4.2. 외부 환경의 요인 22
• 4.2.1. 국제 환경의 요인 23
• 4.2.2. 지역 환경의 요인 23
• 4.2.3. 제3자와 하는 양자 관계 24
• 4.3 내부 환경의 요인 28
• 4.3.1. 체제 변동과 정치안정유지 28
• 4.3.2. 경제상황 29
• 4.3.3. 공문서에 제시된 국내적 관심 30
• 4.4. 결론 31
• 제5장 몽골과 북한의 관계악화와 침체 (1995년부터 1999년 초반까지) 32
• 5.1. 개요 32
• 5.2. 외부 환경의 요인 32
• 5.2.1. 국제 환경의 요인 32
• 5.2.2. 지역 환경의 요인 33
• 5.2.3. 제3의 이웃과의 관계 요인과 북한의 몽골대사관 폐쇄 요인 34
• 5.3. 내부 환경의 요인 35
• 5.3.1. 체제와 정치안정 유지 35
• 5.3.2. 경제상황 37
• 5.3.3. 공문서에 제시된 국내적 관심 38
• 5.4. 결론 38
• 제6장 양국 간 관계회복의 동학과 전통적 협력관계로의 전환 (1999년 후반부터 2004년까지) 39
• 6.1. 개요 39
• 6.2. 외부 환경의 요인 39
• 6.2.1. 국제 환경의 요인 39
• 6.2.2. 지역 환경의 요인 40
• 6.3. 내부 환경의 요인 40
• 6.3.1. 체제와 안보 유지 40
• 6.3.2. 경제상황 41
• 6.3.3. 공문서에 제시된 국내적 관심 41
• 6.4. 외부와 내부 환경의 요인이 양국 간의 관계에 미치는 영향 42
• 6.4.1. 북한의 ARF 가입 44
• 6.4.2. 대사관 재개설 45
• 6.4.3. 몽골-북한의 관계 개선 47
• 6.4.4. 탈북자 문제 해결 49
• 6.4.5. 동북아 다자 협의체 구축을 위한 몽골의 제안과 그 결과 52
• 6.4.6. 개발 계획에의 참여 54
• 6.5. 결론 58
• 제7장 몽골의 대북 햇볕정책 (2005년부터 2012까지) 59
• 7.1. 개요 59
• 7.2. 외부 환경의 요인 59
• 7.2.1. 국제 환경의 요인 59
• 7.2.2. 지역 환경의 요인 60
• 7.2.3. 제3자와 하는 관계 요인 60
• 7.3. 내부 환경의 요인 60
• 7.3.1. 경제적 상황 60
• 7.3.2. 안보 유지와 국위 향상 61
• 7.3.3. 공문서에 제시된 국내적 관심 61
• 7.4. 외부와 내부 환경의 요인이 양국 간의 관계에 미치는 영향 62
• 7.4.1. 몽골의 대북 햇볕정책과 양자 포용 노력 62
• 7.4.2. 경제적 협력 64
• 7.4.3. 몽골의 중립외교 65
• 7.5. 결론 68
• 제8장 결론 72
• 참고문헌 76
• 부록 89

참고문헌 (Reference)

1. Statement by H.E. Mr. L.Erdenechuluun., Erdenechuluun, L., Miniterof Foreign Affairs of Mongolia, In the General Debate of the 55thesession of the United Nations General Assembly. 21 Septemberh t t p : / / w w w . u n . i n t / mo n g o l i a / A r c h i v e s / 2 0 0 0 / g e n d e b 5 5 . h tm (검색일:2013.09.14), , 2000

2. “북한 몽골 관계의 형성과 변화.”, 최현미, 경남대학교 석사 학위 논문, , 2014

3. Meeting with Former Ambassador of ROK to Mongolia., 권영순, Institute for Strategic Studies, 25 April, , 2007

4. “Statement by H.E. Mr. Rinchinnyamiin Amarjargal.”, Amarjargal, R., Acting Minister for External Relations of Mongolia in the General debateof the 53rd Session of the United Nations General Assembly, New York,http://www.un.int/mongolia/Archives/1998/gdebat53.htm(검색일: 2014.3.24), , 1998

5. 북한의 체제보전과 대외정책 변화: 진영외교에서 전방위 외교로., 김근식, 한국국제정치학회, 국제정치논총 42집 4호, , 2002