Economic analysis of agricultural projects

목차 (Table of Contents)

• CONTENTS
• Foreword / by A. W. Clausen = ⅴ
• Preface = xiii
• Using This Book = xvii
• PART ONE The Project Concept
• 1. Projects, The Cutting Edge of Development = 3
• What Is a Project? = 4
• Plans and Projects = 6
• Advantages of the Project Format = 7
• Limitations of the Project Format = 9
• Aspects of Project Preparation and Analysis = 12
• Technical aspects = 12
• Institutional-organizational-managerial aspects = 13
• Social aspects = 15
• Commercial aspects = 16
• Financial aspects = 16
• Economic aspects = 18
• The Project Cycle = 21
• Identification = 21
• Preparation and analysis = 22
• Appraisal = 24
• Implementation = 24
• Evaluation = 25
• Accuracy of Agricultural Project Analyses = 26
• Economic effects = 27
• Effect on incomes of rural poor = 28
• Implementation experience = 28
• Why Agricultural Project Analyses Prove Wrong = 29
• Problems of project design and implementation = 29
• Problems of poor project analysis = 35
• Steps in Project Analysis = 37
• 2. Identifying Project Costs and Benefits = 43
• Objectives, Costs, and Benefits = 43
• "With" and "Without" Comparisons = 47
• Direct Transfer Payments = 50
• Costs of Agricultural Projects = 52
• Physical goods = 52
• Labor = 53
• Land = 53
• Contingency allowances = 53
• Taxes = 54
• Debt service = 54
• Sunk costs = 55
• Tangible Benefits of Agricultural Projects = 56
• Increased production = 56
• Quality improvement = 57
• Change in time of sale = 57
• Change in location of sale = 57
• Changes in product form(grading and processing) = 58
• Cost reduction through mechanization = 58
• Reduced transport costs = 58
• Losses avoided = 58
• Other kinds of tangible benefits = 59
• Secondary Costs and Benefits = 59
• Intangible Costs and Benefits = 61
• PART TWO Financial Aspects of Project Analysis
• 3. Pricing Project Costs and Benefits = 65
• Prices Reflect Value = 65
• Finding Market Prices = 69
• Point of first sale and farm-gate price = 70
• Pricing intermediate goods = 71
• Other problems in finding market prices = 72
• Project boundary price = 74
• Predicting Future Prices = 74
• Changes in relative prices = 75
• Inflation = 76
• Prices for Internationally Traded Commodities = 77
• Financial Export and Import Parity Prices = 78
• 4. Farm Investment Analysis = 85
• Objectives of Financial Analysis = 86
• Assessment of financial impact = 86
• Judgment of efficient resource use = 86
• Assessment of incentives = 86
• Provision of a sound financing plan = 87
• Coordination of financial contributions = 87
• Assessment of financial management competence = 87
• Preparing the Farm Investment Analysis = 89
• Elements of Farm Investment Analysis = 95
• Accounting convention for farm investment analysis = 95
• Farm resource use = 99
• Farm production = 111
• Farm inputs = 119
• Farm budget = 127
• Net Benefit Increase = 140
• Unit Activity Budgets = 141
• Computing Debt Service = 147
• Simple interest = 147
• Repayment of equal amounts of principal = 150
• Equal installments = 153
• Equal installments with interest capitalized = 157
• Declining real burden of debt service = 158
• Appendix. Herd Projections = 163
• Terminology and definitions = 164
• Computational conventions = 164
• Technical coefficients = 165
• Animal units = 174
• Determining the stable herd = 175
• Tracing the herd growth = 179
• Machine computation = 183
• Feed budget = 183
• 5. Financial Analysis of Processing Industries = 189
• Balance Sheet = 192
• Income Statement = 195
• Sources-and-Uses-of-Funds Statement = 198
• Financial Ratios = 202
• Efficiency ratios = 203
• Income ratios = 206
• Creditworthiness ratios = 207
• Financial Rate of Return = 209
• 6. Analyzing Project Effects on Government Receipts and Expenditures = 215
• Government Cash Flow = 277
• Foreign Exchange Flow = 220
• Cost Recovery = 222
• Objectives of cost recovery = 223
• Setting the level of water charges and benefit taxes = 225
• Measuring cost and rent recovery = 226
• Joint Cost Allocation = 233
• General principles of cost allocation = 233
• Separable costs-remaining benefits method = 234
• PART THREE Economic Aspects of Project Analysis
• 7. Determining Economic Values = 243
• Determining the Premium on Foreign Exchange = 247
• Adjusting Financial Prices to Economic Values = 250
• Step 1. Adjustment for direct transfer payments = 251
• Step 2. Adjustment for price distortions in traded items = 251
• Step 3. Adjustment for price distortions in nontraded items = 253
• Indirectly traded items = 265
• Economic export and import parity values = 269
• Trade Policy Signals from Project Analysis = 271
• Valuing Intangible Costs and Benefits = 279
• Decision Tree for Determining Economic Values = 284
• 8. Aggregating Project Accounts = 287
• Aggregating Farm Budgets = 287
• Other Aggregation Issues = 289
• Appendix. A Diagrammatic Project Model = 291
• Measures of national income = 292
• Value added = 293
• Project model = 293
• PART FOUR Measures of Project Worth
• 9. Comparing Project Costs and Benefits = 299
• Undiscounted Measures of Project Worth = 300
• Ranking by inspection = 300
• Payback period = 302
• Proceeds per unit of outlay = 302
• Average annual proceeds per unit of outlay = 303
• Average income on book value of the investment = 303
• The Time Value of Money = 304
• Interest = 305
• Compounding = 305
• Discounting(present worth) = 308
• Present worth of a stream of future income = 309
• Discounted Measures of Project Worth = 313
• Choosing the discount rate = 313
• Discounting convention for project analysis = 315
• Derivation of Incremental Net Benefit(Incremental Cash Flow) = 315
• Net Present Worth = 319
• Internal Rate of Return = 329
• Computing the internal rate of return = 332
• Reinvestment of returns = 339
• More than one possible internal rate of return = 339
• Point in time for internal rate of return calculations = 341
• Benefit-Cost Ratio = 343
• Net Benefit-Investment Ratio = 346
• Selecting among Project Alternatives = 350
• What Happened to Depreciation? = 351
• Length of the Project Period = 355
• How Far to Carry Out Computations of Discounted Measures = 356
• Comparisons among Discounted Measures = 358
• Appendix. Mathematical Formulations of Discounted Measures of Project Worth = 361
• 10. Applying Discounted Measures of Project Worth = 363
• Sensitivity Analysis(Treatment of Uncertainty) = 363
• Price = 364
• Delay in implementation = 364
• Cost overrun = 364
• Yield = 365
• Technique of sensitivity analysis = 365
• Switching Value = 371
• Choosing among Mutually Exclusive Alternatives = 373
• Entirely different projects = 377
• Different scales of a project = 379
• Different timing of a project = 381
• Choice between technologies(crossover discount rate) = 383
• Additional purposes in multipurpose projects = 388
• Applying Contingency Allowances = 393
• Replacement costs = 395
• Residual value = 397
• Domestic resource cost = 398
• Calculating Measures of Project Worth Using Current Prices = 400
• Calculator Applications in Project Analysis = 401
• Appendixes
• A. Guidelines for Project Preparation Reports = 411
• 1. Summary and Conclusions = 412
• 2. Introduction = 412
• 3. Background = 413
• 3.1 Current economic situation = 413
• 3.2 The agricultural sector = 413
• 3.3 Development and social objectives = 413
• 3.4 Income distribution and poverty = 413
• 3.5 Institutions = 414
• 4. Project Rationale = 414
• 5. The Project Area = 414
• 5.1 Physical features = 414
• 5.2 Economic base = 415
• 5.3 Social aspects = 416
• 5.4 Infrastructure = 417
• 5.5 Institutions = 417
• 6. The Project = 417
• 6.1 Project description = 418
• 6.2 Detailed features = 418
• 6.3 Project phasing and disbursement period = 419
• 6.4 Cost estimates = 420
• 6.5 Financing = 421
• 6.6 Procurement = 422
• 6.7 Environmental impact = 422
• 7. Organization and Management = 422
• 7.1 Credit administration = 423
• 7.2 Marketing structure = 423
• 7.3 Supply of inputs = 424
• 7.4 Land reform = 424
• 7.5 Research = 424
• 7.6 Extension = 424
• 7.7 Cooperatives = 424
• 7.8 Farmer organisation and participation = 424
• 8. Production, Markets, and Financial Results = 425
• 8.1 Production = 425
• 8.2 Availability of markets = 425
• 8.3 Farm income = 426
• 8.4 Processing industries and marketing agencies = 426
• 8.5 Government agencies or project authorities = 426
• 8.6 Cost recovery = 426
• 9. Benefits and Justification = 427
• 9.1 Social benefit = 427
• 9.2 Economic benefit = 428
• 10. Outstanding Issues = 428
• 11. Annexes = 428
• B. Three-decimal Discounting Tables = 431
• Compounding Factor for 1 = 432
• Compounding Factor for 1 per Annum = 432
• Sinking Fund Factor = 432
• Discount Factor = 433
• Present Worth of an Annuity Factor 433
• Capital Recovery Factor 433
• C. Sources of Institutional Assistance for Project Preparation = 437
• Bilateral Assistance = 437
• Multilateral Assistance = 437
• European Community = 438
• United Nations Development Programme = 438
• Food and Agriculture Organization - Development Bank Cooperative Programs = 439
• World Bank = 440
• Consultants = 441
• Bibliography = 445
• Glossary-Index = 457