Population Mobility, Lockdowns, and COVID-19 Control: An Analysis Based on Google Location Data and Doubling Time from India

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Objectives: Physical distancing is a control measure against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Lockdowns are a strategyto enforce physical distancing in urban areas, but they are drastic measures. Therefore, we assessed the effectiveness of thelockdown measures taken in the world’s second-most populous country, India, by exploring their relationship with communitymobility patterns and the doubling time of COVID-19. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis based on communitymobility patterns, the stringency index of lockdown measures, and the doubling time of COVID-19 cases in Indiabetween February 15 and April 26, 2020. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated between the stringency index, communitymobility patterns, and the doubling time of COVID-19 cases. Multiple linear regression was applied to predict thedoubling time of COVID-19. Results: Community mobility drastically fell after the lockdown was instituted. The doublingtime of COVID-19 cases was negatively correlated with population mobility patterns in outdoor areas (r = –0.45 to –0.58).
The stringency index and outdoor mobility patterns were also negatively correlated (r = –0.89 to –0.95). Population mobilitypatterns (R2 = 0.67) were found to predict the doubling time of COVID-19, and the model’s predictive power increased whenthe stringency index was also added (R2 = 0.73). Conclusions: Lockdown measures could effectively ensure physical distancingand reduce short-term case spikes in India. Therefore, lockdown measures may be considered for tailored implementationon an intermittent basis, whenever COVID-19 cases are predicted to exceed the health care system’s capacity to manage.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 Lu N, "Weathering COVID-19 storm : Successful control measures of five Asian countries" 48 (48): 851-852, 2020

2 Hale T, "Variation in government responses to COVID-19" Blavatnik School of Government

3 Ruktanonchai NW, "Using Google Location History data to quantify finescale human mobility" 17 (17): 28-, 2018

4 Carrasco-Escobar G, "Use of open mobile mapping tool to assess human mobility traceability in rural offline populations with contrasting malaria dynamics" 7 : e6298-, 2019

5 Evans WN, "Time Series Analysis: Durbin-Watson significance tables" University of Notre Dame

6 Callaway E, "The coronavirus is mutating : does it matter" 585 (585): 174-177, 2020

7 Know India, "States and union territories" Know India

8 Galvani AP, "Severe acute respiratory syndrome : temporal stability and geographic variation in case-fatality rates and doubling times" 9 (9): 991-994, 2003

9 World Health Organization, "SARS-CoV-2 variants" World Health Organization

10 Ferguson NM, "Report 9: Impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19mortality and healthcare demand" Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, Imperial College London

11 Sjodin H, "Only strict quarantine measures can curb the coronavirus disease(COVID-19)outbreak in Italy, 2020" 25 (25): 2000280-, 2020

12 Kong Q, "Non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies for outbreak of COVID-19in Hangzhou, China" 182 : 185-186, 2020

13 Ngonghala CN, "Mathematical assessment of the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on curtailing the 2019 novel Coronavirus" 325 : 108364-, 2020

14 Statista, "Market share of mobile operating systems in India from 2012-2020" The Institute for Statistics Education

15 Ji T, "Lockdown contained the spread of 2019 novel coronavirus disease in Huangshi City, China : early epidemiological findings" 71 (71): 1454-1460, 2020

16 The Lancet, "India under COVID-19 lockdown" 395 (395): 1315-, 2020

17 Wallinga J, "How generation intervals shape the relationship between growth rates and reproductive numbers" 274 (274): 599-604, 2007

18 Chatterjee K, "Healthcare impact of COVID-19 epidemic in India : a stochastic mathematical model" 76 (76): 147-155, 2020

19 Riley T, "Estimates of the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on sexual and reproductive health in low-and middleincome countries" 46 : 73-76, 2020

20 Lai S, "Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain COVID-19 in China" 585 (585): 410-413, 2020

21 "EViews" IHS Global Inc

22 Muniz-Rodriguez K, "Doubling time of the COVID-19 epidemic by province, China" 26 (26): 1912-1914, 2020

23 Pulla P, "Covid-19: India imposes lockdown for 21 days and cases rise" 368 : m1251-, 2020

24 World Health Organization, "Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation report" World Health Organization

25 Worldometer, "Coronavirus age, sex, demographics (COVID-19)"

26 Wesolowski A, "Connecting mobility to infectious diseases : the promise and limits of mobile phone data" 214 (214): S414-S420, 2016

27 World Health Organization, "COVID-19: Infection prevention and control / WASH" World Health Organization

28 Webb L, "COVID-19 lockdown : a perfect storm for older people's mental health" 28 (28): 300-, 2021

29 Google, "COVID-19 community mobility report"

30 Ruktanonchai NW, "Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe" 369 (369): 1465-1470, 2020