동북아시아의 세력균형, 1945-2001 = 평화의 경로 또는 분쟁의 원천?

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper examines whether the balance of power theory is applicable in Northeast Asia. I argue that unlike other regions, the logic of balance of power is highly appliable to Northeast Asia because its structure is characterized with ⅰ)geopolitical dynamics among China, Korea and Japan, ⅱ)anarchic tendency and explicit confrontation between two coalitions, and ⅲ)competitive system consisting of many enduring rivalries. The dependent variable is measured with the occurrence of disputes, and the independent variable, balance of power is operationalized with relative power in a dyad. The results of the logit regression analysis show that in the international system, power parity is more likely to lead to militarized disputes, refuting the balance of power theory. Yet, I`ve found that both the combined effect of Northeast Asia and relative power in international system and relative power in Northeast Asia are statistically significant in reducing disputes, indicating the strong evidence that the balance of power theory is applicable in the region. These findings imply that while moderate and relaxed policies are the path to the peace in the balancing world of Northeast Asia, aggressive policies employing power, threat or intimidation frequently in the Northeast of balancers are major sources of disputes by merely encouraging counter-coalition. Bandwagoning both to the threat of the rising China, and to the rebalance of the U.S. or Japan against the rising China, is the very source of disputes. In contrast, the balancing policies challenging any external threat of aggressive powers is more likely to lead states in Northeast Asia to peace and survival.

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